| Side | Shares | Cost | Value | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| NO | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
The station’s own daily record is what settles this market; the reference is where it listed, from the forecast re-cut on that local day.
| Time | Trader | Side | Action | Shares | Avg price | Amount | After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | NO | Buy | 82.05 | 54.0% | 44.29 | 45.0% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | YES | Buy | 22.43 | 46.8% | 10.49 | 47.0% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | YES | Buy | 21.90 | 46.2% | 10.12 | 46.5% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | NO | Buy | 59.66 | 53.3% | 31.81 | 45.9% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | YES | Buy | 34.39 | 47.0% | 16.16 | 47.4% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | NO | Buy | 49.93 | 52.8% | 26.37 | 46.6% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | NO | Buy | 118.31 | 50.7% | 60.00 | 47.8% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | NO | Buy | 35.99 | 48.8% | 17.56 | 50.8% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | NO | Buy | 37.27 | 47.9% | 17.84 | 51.7% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | NO | Buy | 16.27 | 47.2% | 7.68 | 52.6% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | NO | Buy | 75.51 | 46.1% | 34.78 | 53.0% |
| 3 d ago | cmucnr… | YES | Buy | 63.13 | 54.1% | 34.15 | 54.9% |
The condition is on the daily low at station KIAD over its local calendar day 2026-09-25 — local midnight to local midnight, daylight saving applied. It settles on the station's own record from the oracle: the extreme over the METAR observations received in the window, with the observation that produced it and its raw text. Met → YES pays, not met → NO pays. A day with a gap over six hours between observations or fewer than twelve observations is withheld: every position refunded at cost. Trading runs until the local day ends.
The station and its NOAA page are linked above. The official NWS value comes from the 1-minute ASOS record and can differ from the METAR extreme by about a degree. Settlement rules →