What will the temperature in Tokyo be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
7 tickets · 177 sUSDTPositions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
Sign in or open an accountMy tickets
0No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.
Recent tickets
7| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85 min ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 22°C | 9.35 sUSDT | open |
| 7 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 19°C | 8.97 sUSDT | open |
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 23°C · 24°C · 25°C | 75.03 sUSDT | open |
| 12 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 18°C · 19°C | 27.69 sUSDT | open |
| 12 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 21°C · 22°C | 25.84 sUSDT | open |
| 24 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 21°C · 22°C | 26.04 sUSDT | open |
| 26 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 23°C | 4.54 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 16°C at the bottom, ≥ 26°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →