What will the temperature in Manila be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
7 tickets · 254 sUSDTPositions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
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Recent tickets
7| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 28°C · 29°C · 30°C | 50.80 sUSDT | open |
| 7 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 29°C | 14.32 sUSDT | open |
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 33°C · 34°C | 36.59 sUSDT | open |
| 12 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 30°C | 18.22 sUSDT | open |
| 19 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 30°C | 20.85 sUSDT | open |
| 34 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 32°C · 33°C · 34°C | 71.84 sUSDT | open |
| 37 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 31°C · 32°C | 41.82 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 26°C at the bottom, ≥ 36°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →