What will the temperature in Ulaanbaatar be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
9 tickets · 263 sUSDTPositions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
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Recent tickets
9| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | -1°C · 0°C | 31.76 sUSDT | open |
| 3 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 4°C | 8.85 sUSDT | open |
| 6 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | -3°C · -2°C · -1°C | 50.50 sUSDT | open |
| 6 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 0°C · 1°C | 17.85 sUSDT | open |
| 7 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | -1°C | 10.93 sUSDT | open |
| 9 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 1°C | 9.77 sUSDT | open |
| 27 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 0°C · 1°C · 2°C | 77.12 sUSDT | open |
| 30 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 4°C | 15.36 sUSDT | open |
| 30 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 1°C · 2°C | 40.60 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ -5°C at the bottom, ≥ 5°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →