What will the temperature in Tehran be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
11 tickets · 273 sUSDTOnly 14% of Tehran's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
11| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 min ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 25°C | 25.76 sUSDT | open |
| 2 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 26°C · 27°C · 28°C | 54.79 sUSDT | open |
| 4 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 27°C | 4.86 sUSDT | open |
| 8 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 24°C · 25°C · 26°C | 36.39 sUSDT | open |
| 8 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 24°C | 15.32 sUSDT | open |
| 9 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 27°C · 28°C · 29°C | 36.28 sUSDT | open |
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≤ 20°C · 21°C | 17.97 sUSDT | open |
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 24°C | 17.73 sUSDT | open |
| 14 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 25°C · 26°C | 33.39 sUSDT | open |
| 20 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 26°C | 6.84 sUSDT | open |
| 26 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 23°C · 24°C · 25°C | 23.52 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 20°C at the bottom, ≥ 30°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →