What will the temperature in Porto be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
8 tickets · 230 sUSDTOnly 25% of Porto's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
8| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 19°C · 20°C · 21°C | 67.27 sUSDT | open |
| 20 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 21°C | 10.23 sUSDT | open |
| 27 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 20°C | 10.60 sUSDT | open |
| 28 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 19°C · 20°C · 21°C | 55.39 sUSDT | open |
| 30 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 18°C | 21.64 sUSDT | open |
| 32 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 18°C · 19°C · 20°C | 55.61 sUSDT | open |
| 33 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 19°C | 5.06 sUSDT | open |
| 35 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 19°C | 3.96 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 15°C at the bottom, ≥ 25°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →