What will the temperature in Atlanta be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
10 tickets · 328 sUSDTPositions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
Sign in or open an accountMy tickets
0No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.
Recent tickets
10| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 min ago | simulated participant | Consensus | ≤ 62°F · 63°F · 64°F | 43.48 sUSDT | open |
| 2 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 65°F · 66°F · 67°F | 43.61 sUSDT | open |
| 9 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 64°F · 65°F · 66°F | 53.10 sUSDT | open |
| 9 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 63°F | 19.97 sUSDT | open |
| 10 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 69°F | 6.86 sUSDT | open |
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 64°F | 7.93 sUSDT | open |
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 63°F · 64°F · 65°F | 59.19 sUSDT | open |
| 16 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 72°F · 73°F · ≥ 74°F | 50.52 sUSDT | open |
| 18 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 63°F · 64°F | 17.00 sUSDT | open |
| 24 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 71°F | 26.59 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °F: ≤ 62°F at the bottom, ≥ 74°F at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →