What will the temperature in Washington D.C. be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
6 tickets · 175 sUSDTPositions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
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Recent tickets
6| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 65°F · 66°F | 53.01 sUSDT | open |
| 9 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 65°F · 66°F | 33.61 sUSDT | open |
| 31 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 62°F | 23.80 sUSDT | open |
| 32 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 63°F · 64°F · 65°F | 21.61 sUSDT | open |
| 33 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 66°F · 67°F · 68°F | 16.49 sUSDT | open |
| 36 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 64°F | 26.02 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °F: ≤ 57°F at the bottom, ≥ 69°F at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →