What will the temperature in Las Vegas be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
5 tickets · 170 sUSDTOnly 36% of Las Vegas's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
Positions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
Sign in or open an accountMy tickets
0No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.
Recent tickets
5| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 74°F · 75°F | 48.76 sUSDT | open |
| 5 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 74°F | 8.69 sUSDT | open |
| 8 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 71°F | 18.80 sUSDT | open |
| 10 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≤ 69°F · 70°F · 71°F | 52.81 sUSDT | open |
| 21 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 71°F · 72°F · 73°F | 40.86 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °F: ≤ 69°F at the bottom, ≥ 81°F at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →