What will the temperature in Anchorage be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
9 tickets · 311 sUSDTOnly 19% of Anchorage's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
9| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 38°F | 14.38 sUSDT | open |
| 9 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 42°F · 43°F · 44°F | 42.33 sUSDT | open |
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 38°F | 17.36 sUSDT | open |
| 16 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 45°F | 17.89 sUSDT | open |
| 17 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 42°F | 25.99 sUSDT | open |
| 18 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 47°F · 48°F | 44.89 sUSDT | open |
| 32 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 38°F · 39°F | 47.30 sUSDT | open |
| 34 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 43°F · 44°F | 55.53 sUSDT | open |
| 34 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 44°F · 45°F | 45.67 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °F: ≤ 37°F at the bottom, ≥ 49°F at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →