Cities / Europe

Manchester

United Kingdom·Europe·EGCC·53.48, -2.24

Grade BSettles reliably82%of hours settle-eligible (7d)· 88% (30d)

weathermarket.ai ↗Insure this city Open a market

Hourly consensus

verified

Temperature

14.0°C

Humidity

61%

Wind

1.6m/s

Precipitation

0.0mm

WDI: 40.80
TDI: 55.00
Sources: 11 / 11
Settlement: eligible

Indices · this hour

History & sources on weathermarket.ai ↗Index spec ↗

WDIheadline

40.8

Weather Data Index

Composite of temperature, humidity, wind and rain, 0–100 · unit-free

TDI

55.0

Temperature Data Index

The temperature component on its own, 0–100 · unit-free

Index history · last 7 days · one point per run

WDITDItemp °Cfull history on weathermarket.ai ↗

Loading history…

Run run_pfm6rFfm6F

Anchor 0x63e8f272…22ae85 ↗

as of 2026-09-28 19:01 UTC

refreshed 58 min ago (cached)

Live consensus feed

Reading the run…

weathermarket.ai · the oracle

Eleven independent feeds every hour: two measured at the station, nine numerical models from national weather services.
Outliers excluded per metric, corroboration counted between the measured sources, and a verdict per metric on whether the hour can settle.
Every run hashed and anchored on a public ledger, so the number a market settles on can be checked after the fact.
Station records for the local calendar day with the raw METAR behind each extreme, and a 16-day forecast cut on station time.

weathermarket.io · this simulator

Turns each run into tradeable markets and parametric covers on 167 cities: hourly conditions, station-day extremes and index thresholds.
Prices from the forecast and the index history, shown next to the market so the edge is visible, with a living order book to trade against.
Lists next-day products only where the oracle's recent hours settle, and shows this feed on every market so the evidence is on the page before settlement.
Settles on the oracle's determination and nothing else, with the run, the anchor and the readings kept on the settled market.

Readings and verdict from the oracle's own run as served to a subscriber. The rule that turns eleven readings into one number is the oracle's and is not disclosed; what it decided is.Powered by Weather Data Market

Daily forecast

15 days

HighLowAverageRain2026-09-28 onward · hover a day for every figure

Date	Avg °C	Max	Min	Rain mm	Hum %	Wind m/s	Src
2026-09-28	13.7	18.0	9.1	0.0	67	1.4	1
2026-09-29	17.0	20.9	12.4	0.0	75	4.4	1
2026-09-30	18.1	20.6	15.0	9.4	72	4.1	1
2026-10-01	14.7	17.5	12.0	0.0	70	2.2	1
2026-10-02	14.3	16.2	12.4	3.0	80	3.4	1
2026-10-03	13.5	15.9	11.2	0.0	78	1.2	1
2026-10-04	14.6	16.9	11.9	1.0	83	2.4	1
2026-10-05	13.6	16.9	9.7	0.0	89	1.2	1
2026-10-06	13.8	14.8	13.2	0.6	89	0.9	1
2026-10-07	12.0	13.3	8.5	0.0	77	2.3	1
2026-10-08	9.6	13.1	5.9	0.0	77	1.2	1
2026-10-09	10.2	12.2	7.8	5.7	79	3.2	1
2026-10-10	10.8	13.7	8.3	3.3	82	2.9	1
2026-10-11	9.7	12.7	7.7	1.8	85	2.3	1
2026-10-12	9.7	10.9	8.5	6.6	83	3.8	1

Open markets 51

Product board →

Question	Model	Market	Edge	Closes	Volume
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	63%	51%	+12	9 h	60 sUSDT
Will Manchester wind ≥ 5m/s at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	34%	32%	+2	9 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester precipitation ≥ 0.2mm at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	3%	27%	-24	9 h	418 sUSDT
Will Manchester humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	67%	55%	+12	9 h	120 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	17%	23%	-6	9 h	60 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	38%	41%	-3	9 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≤ 12°C at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	16%	19%	-3	9 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester wind ≥ 4m/s at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	62%	51%	+11	9 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	84%	62%	+22	9 h	180 sUSDT
Will Manchester humidity ≥ 85% at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	44%	54%	-10	9 h	232 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 18°C at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	12%	30%	-18	33 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	82%	46%	+36	33 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 17°C at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	25%	53%	-28	33 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester precipitation ≥ 0.2mm at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	54%	27%	+27	33 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	53%	46%	+7	33 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 16°C at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	45%	53%	-8	33 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	97%	48%	+49	33 h	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC? target 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC	45%	49%	-4	2 d	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC? target 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC	46%	56%	-10	2 d	0 sUSDT
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC? target 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC	29%	49%	-20	2 d	0 sUSDT

Recently settled

Question	Result	Settled
Will Manchester humidity ≥ 70% at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?	resolved YES	6 h ago
Will Manchester wind ≥ 2m/s at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	6 h ago
Will Manchester temperature ≤ 9°C at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?	resolved YES	6 h ago
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 9°C at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	9 h ago
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	9 h ago

Station day · EGCC · 2026-09-28

2026-09-28 local · 23:00Z → 23:00Z UTC · +01:00

Reading the station…

Open a market

A YES/NO market on a condition at a whole UTC hour, settled by the oracle determination. Priced off the forecast; trading closes 1 h before the target hour.

Parametric insurance

Buy a cover on Manchester that pays the full amount when the condition is met at the target hour.

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