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Weather futures · simulation

Trade the weather that moves energy, power and crops

A weather index future is a position on how much heating, cooling or growing weather one station records over a week or a month. Heating degree days move gas and heating-fuel demand, cooling degree days move electricity load, growing degree days move crop development. Go long if you expect more of it than the market does, short if you expect less. Every contract is priced from the oracle's sixteen-day forecast and settled on the station's final record, anchored on Flare.

Beside each index trades a real-asset future: gas, power, grains. Its price is simulated by this demo from the weather index and a simulated market factor, so you can trade the commodity, the weather behind it, or one against the other.

Weather index contracts settle on the station record. Real-asset prices are generated by the simulator and are not market prices of any commodity. Everything trades and settles in virtual sUSDT.

Weather index contracts
83
Real-asset contracts
33simulated
Stations
20
Volume
46,225sUSDT
ContractMarketModel fairCloses
CDD-KAUS-26W47Austin · Cooling degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2212.9long 48¢14.3± 7.28 d
CDD-KLAX-26W47Los Angeles · Cooling degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 225.2long 19¢4.2± 4.28 d
CDD-KMIA-26W47Miami · Cooling degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2247.1long 56¢45.6± 10.08 d
CDD-OMDB-26W47Dubai · Cooling degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2255.6long 51¢55.7± 9.98 d
CDD-SAEZ-26W47Buenos Aires · Cooling degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2232.3long 46¢27.5± 8.58 d
CDD-SBGR-26W47Sao Paulo · Cooling degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2231.0long 41¢31.8± 9.68 d
CDD-VHHH-26W47Hong Kong · Cooling degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2221.7long 43¢20.7± 7.58 d
CDD-VIDP-26W47New Delhi · Cooling degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2210.5long 30¢8.8± 5.78 d
CDD-WSSS-26W47Singapore · Cooling degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2257.7long 54¢58.9± 9.48 d
CDD-YSSY-26W47Sydney · Cooling degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2215.5long 39¢14.3± 7.28 d
GDD-KORD-26W47Chicago · Growing degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2215.4long 55¢12.0± 4.98 d
GDD-SAEZ-26W47Buenos Aires · Growing degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2286.6long 45¢80.5± 9.38 d
GDD-SBGR-26W47Sao Paulo · Growing degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2285.2long 43¢86.0± 9.18 d
GDD-VIDP-26W47New Delhi · Growing degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2259.2long 45¢59.6± 8.58 d
HDD-CYUL-26W47Montreal · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2284.0long 49¢85.7± 10.78 d
HDD-CYYZ-26W47Toronto · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2257.7long 44¢56.2± 10.08 d
HDD-EDDB-26W47Berlin · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2282.5long 57¢82.0± 10.08 d
HDD-EGLL-26W47London · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2283.0long 40¢73.5± 10.08 d
HDD-KAUS-26W47Austin · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2212.1long 34¢13.9± 5.48 d
HDD-KJFK-26W47New York · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2251.8long 42¢47.9± 9.98 d
HDD-KLAX-26W47Los Angeles · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2213.8long 46¢12.8± 7.68 d
HDD-KORD-26W47Chicago · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2259.5long 39¢67.5± 10.18 d
HDD-LEMD-26W47Madrid · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2242.5long 46¢41.2± 9.88 d
HDD-LFPG-26W47Paris · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2253.4long 48¢47.8± 9.98 d
HDD-RJTT-26W47Tokyo · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2239.4long 49¢39.2± 9.38 d
HDD-RKSI-26W47Seoul · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 2289.9long 60¢90.7± 9.48 d
HDD-VIDP-26W47New Delhi · Heating degree daysWeek 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 226.5long 25¢6.2± 5.48 d
CDD-KAUS-26W48Austin · Cooling degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2912.5long 23¢3.2± 2.915 d
CDD-KLAX-26W48Los Angeles · Cooling degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2914.8long 30¢12.9± 10.515 d
CDD-KMIA-26W48Miami · Cooling degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2950.3long 42¢31.9± 14.315 d
CDD-OMDB-26W48Dubai · Cooling degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2944.9long 45¢44.1± 15.115 d
CDD-SAEZ-26W48Buenos Aires · Cooling degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2923.7long 40¢14.4± 10.315 d
CDD-SBGR-26W48Sao Paulo · Cooling degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2929.3long 33¢32.9± 14.215 d
CDD-VHHH-26W48Hong Kong · Cooling degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2929.0long 36¢19.8± 12.115 d
CDD-VIDP-26W48New Delhi · Cooling degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2914.4long 32¢10.8± 9.215 d
CDD-WSSS-26W48Singapore · Cooling degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2959.5long 50¢57.8± 15.515 d
CDD-YSSY-26W48Sydney · Cooling degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2919.1long 29¢19.6± 11.115 d
GDD-KORD-26W48Chicago · Growing degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 295.8long 20¢1.0± 2.015 d
GDD-SAEZ-26W48Buenos Aires · Growing degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2968.3long 53¢61.2± 14.515 d
GDD-SBGR-26W48Sao Paulo · Growing degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2983.2long 48¢84.8± 14.215 d
GDD-VIDP-26W48New Delhi · Growing degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2961.0long 51¢57.1± 12.715 d
HDD-CYUL-26W48Montreal · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2977.5long 52¢76.8± 16.915 d
HDD-CYYZ-26W48Toronto · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2981.2long 68¢100.4± 16.715 d
HDD-EDDB-26W48Berlin · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2999.7long 50¢97.2± 16.015 d
HDD-EGLL-26W48London · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2976.1long 38¢68.6± 15.815 d
HDD-KAUS-26W48Austin · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2924.3long 54¢72.9± 15.815 d
HDD-KJFK-26W48New York · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2944.6long 50¢62.6± 16.215 d
HDD-KLAX-26W48Los Angeles · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2911.8long 26¢9.4± 9.115 d
HDD-KORD-26W48Chicago · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 29101.2long 55¢126.3± 16.815 d
HDD-LEMD-26W48Madrid · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2960.3long 42¢57.7± 15.715 d
HDD-LFPG-26W48Paris · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2972.2long 52¢74.0± 16.015 d
HDD-RJTT-26W48Tokyo · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2953.8long 49¢62.0± 15.515 d
HDD-RKSI-26W48Seoul · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2995.9long 63¢101.7± 15.815 d
HDD-SAEZ-26W48Buenos Aires · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 297.7long 22¢9.9± 8.715 d
HDD-SBGR-26W48Sao Paulo · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 298.0long 18¢2.1± 4.115 d
HDD-VIDP-26W48New Delhi · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 2911.5long 25¢11.8± 9.515 d
HDD-YSSY-26W48Sydney · Heating degree daysWeek 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 298.0long 23¢6.5± 7.115 d
CDD-KAUS-NOV26Austin · Cooling degree daysNovember 202634.3long 57¢36.7± 8.816 d
CDD-KLAX-NOV26Los Angeles · Cooling degree daysNovember 202658.1long 44¢53.9± 13.416 d
CDD-KMIA-NOV26Miami · Cooling degree daysNovember 2026204.0long 44¢188.2± 20.416 d
CDD-OMDB-NOV26Dubai · Cooling degree daysNovember 2026288.8long 49¢286.2± 21.316 d
CDD-SAEZ-NOV26Buenos Aires · Cooling degree daysNovember 202695.1long 47¢81.9± 16.016 d
CDD-SBGR-NOV26Sao Paulo · Cooling degree daysNovember 2026127.9long 45¢132.2± 20.216 d
CDD-VHHH-NOV26Hong Kong · Cooling degree daysNovember 2026167.2long 48¢161.9± 16.816 d
CDD-VIDP-NOV26New Delhi · Cooling degree daysNovember 2026104.9long 50¢103.3± 13.016 d
CDD-WSSS-NOV26Singapore · Cooling degree daysNovember 2026278.3long 55¢279.7± 21.216 d
CDD-YSSY-NOV26Sydney · Cooling degree daysNovember 202679.8long 50¢78.0± 15.616 d
GDD-KORD-NOV26Chicago · Growing degree daysNovember 202655.4long 64¢50.8± 5.516 d
GDD-SAEZ-NOV26Buenos Aires · Growing degree daysNovember 2026324.6long 53¢301.6± 20.416 d
GDD-SBGR-NOV26Sao Paulo · Growing degree daysNovember 2026353.1long 42¢359.5± 20.016 d
GDD-VIDP-NOV26New Delhi · Growing degree daysNovember 2026329.1long 49¢326.6± 18.116 d
HDD-CYUL-NOV26Montreal · Heating degree daysNovember 2026309.1long 49¢310.1± 24.616 d
HDD-CYYZ-NOV26Toronto · Heating degree daysNovember 2026278.3long 61¢302.1± 23.216 d
HDD-EDDB-NOV26Berlin · Heating degree daysNovember 2026403.8long 55¢393.5± 22.316 d
HDD-EGLL-NOV26London · Heating degree daysNovember 2026330.7long 42¢304.5± 22.016 d
HDD-KAUS-NOV26Austin · Heating degree daysNovember 202662.3long 42¢108.1± 19.916 d
HDD-KJFK-NOV26New York · Heating degree daysNovember 2026199.3long 62¢206.9± 22.616 d
HDD-KLAX-NOV26Los Angeles · Heating degree daysNovember 202629.6long 33¢27.7± 14.116 d
HDD-KORD-NOV26Chicago · Heating degree daysNovember 2026314.2long 55¢339.0± 23.316 d
HDD-LEMD-NOV26Madrid · Heating degree daysNovember 2026203.8long 40¢198.4± 21.816 d
HDD-LFPG-NOV26Paris · Heating degree daysNovember 2026292.6long 54¢282.9± 22.216 d
HDD-RJTT-NOV26Tokyo · Heating degree daysNovember 2026142.5long 45¢159.6± 21.216 d
HDD-RKSI-NOV26Seoul · Heating degree daysNovember 2026306.7long 60¢321.7± 21.516 d

Index points are °C-days. Market is the index the long price implies inside the contract's band; edge is model fair minus market, so a positive edge means the model sits above the crowd.

Two products, traded as a pair

The weather index is real: forecast and station record. The real-asset price is this demo's simulation of a commodity that depends on that weather. Linking the two shows what a weather finance exchange is for.

1 · Weather index future · real data
The index moves with the forecast

Heating, cooling or growing degree days at one station over a week or a month, re-priced every hour and settled on the final record.

2 · Real-asset future · simulated price
The price follows the index

Listed at 100. A colder week lifts gas, a hotter one lifts power, a warm growing month eases corn and lifts coffee. A simulated market factor adds everything that is not weather.

3 · The pair
Hedge one with the other

Each asset page gives the number of weather shares that take the weather out of an asset position. Simulated spread traders trade the two markets against each other when they drift apart.

Real asset · simulatedFollowsPer 1% of index
NGASNatural gasHDD+0.90%
HOILHeating oilHDD+0.55%
PWRElectricityCDD+1.10%
LNGLNG for powerCDD+0.60%
CORNCornGDD-0.60%
SOYBSoybeansGDD-0.50%
SUGRSugar caneGDD-0.50%
COFFCoffeeGDD+0.70%
WHTWheatGDD+0.60%
MAIZMaizeGDD-0.60%

The sensitivities are assumptions of this simulation, chosen to show the direction of each link. They are not estimates from market data.

Three indexes, three parts of the real economy

Energy
HDD
Heating demand · heating degree days

Colder than normal lifts it; a mild spell sinks it.

Index
max(0, 18 - (high + low) / 2), summed over the period
Exposure
Natural gas, Heating oil, District heat
Who hedges
Gas utilities, heating-fuel distributors, building operators
Power
CDD
Cooling demand · cooling degree days

Heat lifts it; a cool spell sinks it.

Index
max(0, (high + low) / 2 - 18), summed over the period
Exposure
Electricity, LNG for power
Who hedges
Power retailers, grid operators, data centres, cold chains
Agriculture
GDD
Growing-season heat · growing degree days

Warm growing weather lifts it; cold or scorching days add little.

Index
(high + low) / 2 - 10 with both held to 10..30 °C, summed over the period
Exposure
Grains, Oilseeds, Soft commodities
Who hedges
Growers, processors, input suppliers, commodity desks
What you trade

Each contract has a band of index points. A long share pays where the final index lands inside the band, from 0 at the bottom to 1 sUSDT at the top; a short share pays the rest. You pay the price in full when you buy, so the most you can lose is what you paid: no margin call, no liquidation.

How it is priced

The model fair value adds up the days already on the station's record and the forecast for the rest, with the spread Forecast Watch measures at each lead. The market price is the crowd's: a market maker quotes both sides at any size, and every trade moves the index it implies.

How it settles

On the sum of the station's daily records, once the oracle marks every day of the period final and settleable. A period with a day that cannot settle is void: every position refunded at cost. At a US station the daily figures are those of the NWS daily climate report, and the contract settles one day after the last report is issued. Rules →