London heating degree days · Week 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 22
Heating degree days at EGLL · 7 local days, 2026-11-16 to 2026-11-22 · trading closes 11-22 00:00 (8 d)
- Model fair
- 73.5 ± 10.0
- priced 23 min ago
- Edge
- -9.5
- fair minus market
- Volume
- 631
- 14 traders
- Open interest
- 402 / 820
- long / short shares
Real-asset futures that follow this index
simulated pricesEach contract below is a commodity price index the demo simulates: 100 on the day it was listed, moved by this contract's HDD and by a simulated market factor. Weather-implied is the price at the index this market is trading at now; when it differs from the asset's own market price, simulated spread traders trade the two against each other.
| Contract | Market price | Weather-implied | Gap | Per 1% of index | Hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOIL-EGLL-26W47Heating oil | 94.95long 42¢ | 96.00 | -1.05 | +0.55% | 0.71 short per long share |
How the index builds, day by day
Each bar is one local day's contribution to the index. Days on the final record count as they stand; the rest are the model's estimate, with a whisker one standard deviation either way.
Day-by-day table
| Day | Source | High | Low | HDD | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 16 | Forecast | 8.3°C | 4.0°C | 11.9 ± 1.9 | 11.9 |
| Tue, Nov 17 | Forecast | 12.8°C | 4.6°C | 9.3 ± 2.0 | 21.2 |
| Wed, Nov 18 | Forecast | 9.0°C | 3.2°C | 11.9 ± 2.2 | 33.1 |
| Thu, Nov 19 | Forecast | 6.2°C | 1.0°C | 14.4 ± 2.4 | 47.5 |
| Fri, Nov 20 | Forecast | 11.6°C | 3.5°C | 10.4 ± 2.6 | 58.0 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | Forecast | 13.1°C | 4.9°C | 9.0 ± 2.8 | 67.0 |
| Sun, Nov 22 | Forecast | 13.6°C | 9.3°C | 6.6 ± 3.0 | 73.5 |
Market index path
one step per trade · dashed line: model fair nowRecent trades
| Time | Trade | Shares | Amount | Avg price | Index after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-13 17:50 | Buy short | 102.09 | 60.00 | 58.8¢ | 83.0 |
| 11-13 16:50 | Buy shortpair | 8.04 | 4.62 | 57.4¢ | 84.7 |
| 11-13 13:50 | Buy shortpair | 14.50 | 8.29 | 57.2¢ | 84.9 |
| 11-13 12:50 | Buy short | 107.81 | 60.00 | 55.7¢ | 85.1 |
| 11-13 07:50 | Buy long | 53.02 | 23.87 | 45.0¢ | 87.0 |
| 11-13 06:50 | Buy shortpair | 17.20 | 9.53 | 55.4¢ | 86.1 |
| 11-13 03:50 | Buy shortpair | 11.08 | 6.10 | 55.1¢ | 86.4 |
| 11-13 03:50 | Buy long | 33.98 | 15.17 | 44.6¢ | 86.5 |
| 11-13 02:50 | Buy long | 72.88 | 31.58 | 43.3¢ | 86.0 |
| 11-12 22:50 | Buy long | 73.34 | 30.47 | 41.5¢ | 84.7 |
| 11-12 20:50 | Buy longpair | 13.16 | 5.33 | 40.5¢ | 83.5 |
| 11-12 19:50 | Buy longpair | 19.15 | 7.68 | 40.1¢ | 83.2 |
| 11-12 16:50 | Buy short | 22.76 | 13.62 | 59.8¢ | 82.9 |
| 11-12 13:50 | Buy longpair | 20.26 | 8.14 | 40.2¢ | 83.3 |
| 11-12 13:50 | Buy short | 40.79 | 24.30 | 59.6¢ | 83.0 |
A trade marked pair is one leg of a simulated spread trade: the other leg is in a real-asset contract that follows this index.
Settlement
This contract settles on the sum of the station's daily records, as soon as the oracle marks all 7 days final and settleable - no earlier than 11-23 03:00. If a day of the period cannot settle, the contract is void and every position is refunded at cost.
Contract specification
- Symbol
- HDD-EGLL-26W47
- Index
- Heating degree days (HDD), in °C-days
- Formula
- max(0, 18 - (high + low) / 2), summed over the period
- Station
- EGLL · London
- Period
- Week 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 22 · 7 local days, 2026-11-16 to 2026-11-22
- Band
- 55 to 125
- Payoff
- Long: (index - 55) / 70 sUSDT per share, held to 0..1. Short: 1 minus that.
- Point value
- 0.0143 sUSDT per share per index point
- Trading closes
- 2026-11-22 00:00 UTC
- Settles from
- 2026-11-23 03:00 UTC
- Settlement source
- The station's daily record, final and settleable, from the Weather Market oracle
- Hedges
- Energy - Natural gas, Heating oil, District heat (the exposure it hedges; this contract settles on the index)
Long gains if HDD finishes above the level you pay for.
Virtual sUSDT only. No monetary value.
- Long gains when the index finishes higher, short when it finishes lower. A long and a short share together always pay 1 sUSDT.
- Outside the band 55 to 125 the contract pays as if the index had finished on the edge.
- You pay in full when you buy. What you paid is the most you can lose: no margin, no liquidation.
- You can sell back to the market maker at any time before trading closes, when the last day of the period begins.
- Void, with every position refunded at cost, if any day of the period cannot settle on the record.