Chicago heating degree days · Week 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 29
Heating degree days at KORD · 7 local days, 2026-11-23 to 2026-11-29 · trading closes 11-29 06:00 (15 d)
- Model fair
- 126.3 ± 16.8
- priced 23 min ago
- Edge
- +25.2
- fair minus market
- Volume
- 363
- 11 traders
- Open interest
- 443 / 274
- long / short shares
Real-asset futures that follow this index
simulated pricesEach contract below is a commodity price index the demo simulates: 100 on the day it was listed, moved by this contract's HDD and by a simulated market factor. Weather-implied is the price at the index this market is trading at now; when it differs from the asset's own market price, simulated spread traders trade the two against each other.
| Contract | Market price | Weather-implied | Gap | Per 1% of index | Hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGAS-KORD-26W48Natural gas | 106.03long 55¢ | 104.60 | +1.43 | +0.90% | 1.01 short per long share |
How the index builds, day by day
Each bar is one local day's contribution to the index. Days with a final NWS climate report count as they stand (shown as final record); a day whose report is not out yet uses the METAR figure and is marked not final; the rest are the model's estimate, with a whisker one standard deviation either way.
Day-by-day table
| Day | Source | High | Low | HDD | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 23 | Forecast | 30.2°F | 23.5°F | 20.8 ± 3.3 | 20.8 |
| Tue, Nov 24 | Forecast | 32.4°F | 23.0°F | 20.4 ± 3.5 | 41.2 |
| Wed, Nov 25 | Forecast | 35.6°F | 25.7°F | 18.8 ± 3.7 | 60.0 |
| Thu, Nov 26 | Forecast | 41.7°F | 27.9°F | 16.4 ± 4.0 | 76.4 |
| Fri, Nov 27 | Forecast | 47.5°F | 32.9°F | 13.4 ± 4.2 | 89.9 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | Beyond the forecast | 35.4°F | 27.7°F | 18.2 ± 4.5 | 108.1 |
| Sun, Nov 29 | Beyond the forecast | 35.4°F | 27.7°F | 18.2 ± 4.5 | 126.4 |
Market index path
one step per trade · dashed line: model fair nowRecent trades
| Time | Trade | Shares | Amount | Avg price | Index after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-13 17:50 | Buy shortpair | 37.12 | 16.63 | 44.8¢ | 101.2 |
| 11-13 16:50 | Buy shortpair | 19.55 | 8.62 | 44.1¢ | 102.4 |
| 11-13 16:50 | Buy long | 109.51 | 60.00 | 54.8¢ | 103.0 |
| 11-13 14:50 | Buy shortpair | 11.11 | 5.16 | 46.4¢ | 99.5 |
| 11-13 13:50 | Buy long | 114.77 | 60.00 | 52.3¢ | 99.8 |
| 11-13 10:50 | Buy long | 77.90 | 38.85 | 49.9¢ | 96.1 |
| 11-13 05:50 | Buy short | 31.10 | 15.77 | 50.7¢ | 93.6 |
| 11-13 03:50 | Buy short | 85.53 | 42.13 | 49.3¢ | 94.6 |
| 11-12 19:50 | Buy short | 18.35 | 8.80 | 48.0¢ | 97.4 |
| 11-12 18:50 | Buy short | 71.59 | 33.53 | 46.8¢ | 98.0 |
| 11-12 13:50 | Buy long | 114.00 | 60.00 | 52.6¢ | 100.3 |
| 11-12 08:50 | Buy long | 27.19 | 13.83 | 50.9¢ | 96.6 |
A trade marked pair is one leg of a simulated spread trade: the other leg is in a real-asset contract that follows this index.
Settlement
KORD is a US station, so this contract settles on the NWS daily climate report (CLI) of each of its 7 days: the index is the sum built from the high and low the National Weather Service prints. The local forecast office issues each report after local midnight, normally within one to three hours, and the contract settles one day after the last report is issued - about 12-01 08:00. A corrected report replaces the earlier one and the day runs again from it. If any day has no final report three days after the period ends, the contract is void and every position is refunded at cost. NWS CLI Watch ↗
Contract specification
- Symbol
- HDD-KORD-26W48
- Index
- Heating degree days (HDD), in °C-days
- Formula
- max(0, 18 - (high + low) / 2), summed over the period
- Station
- KORD · Chicago
- Period
- Week 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 29 · 7 local days, 2026-11-23 to 2026-11-29
- Band
- 30 to 160
- Payoff
- Long: (index - 30) / 130 sUSDT per share, held to 0..1. Short: 1 minus that.
- Point value
- 0.0077 sUSDT per share per index point
- Trading closes
- 2026-11-29 06:00 UTC
- Settles
- One day after the NWS climate report for the last day is issued
- Settlement source
- The NWS daily climate report (CLI) of each day, as carried by the Weather Market oracle
- Hedges
- Energy - Natural gas, Heating oil, District heat (the exposure it hedges; this contract settles on the index)
Long gains if HDD finishes above the level you pay for.
Virtual sUSDT only. No monetary value.
- Long gains when the index finishes higher, short when it finishes lower. A long and a short share together always pay 1 sUSDT.
- Outside the band 30 to 160 the contract pays as if the index had finished on the edge.
- You pay in full when you buy. What you paid is the most you can lose: no margin, no liquidation.
- You can sell back to the market maker at any time before trading closes, when the last day of the period begins.
- A US station: the index is built from the high and low in the NWS daily climate report of each day, and the contract settles a day after the last of those reports is issued. Void, with every position refunded at cost, if any day has no final report three days after the period ends.