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OpenEnergy · Heating demandWeather index future · simulation

Chicago heating degree days · November 2026

Heating degree days at KORD · 30 local days, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-30 · trading closes 11-30 06:00 (16 d)

Market index
314.2°C-days
Long 55.4¢ · Short 44.6¢ per share
Model fair
339.0 ± 23.3
priced 23 min ago
Edge
+24.8
fair minus market
Volume
888
18 traders
Open interest
1,014 / 751
long / short shares
220 · long pays 0long pays 1 · 390
Market 314.2Model fair 339.0On the record 83.6 (12 of 30 days) - the index cannot finish below this
Listed at 303.1 · quoted by a market maker, no order book · one share moves 0.0059 sUSDT per index point

Real-asset futures that follow this index

simulated prices

Each contract below is a commodity price index the demo simulates: 100 on the day it was listed, moved by this contract's HDD and by a simulated market factor. Weather-implied is the price at the index this market is trading at now; when it differs from the asset's own market price, simulated spread traders trade the two against each other.

ContractMarket priceWeather-implied
NGAS-KORD-NOV26Natural gas95.23long 44¢98.89

How the index builds, day by day

Final recordForecastBeyond the forecast

Each bar is one local day's contribution to the index. Days with a final NWS climate report count as they stand (shown as final record); a day whose report is not out yet uses the METAR figure and is marked not final; the rest are the model's estimate, with a whisker one standard deviation either way.

0132511-0111-0411-0711-1011-1311-1611-1911-2211-2511-28
Day-by-day table
DaySourceHighLowHDDRunning total
Sun, Nov 1Final record64.0°F52.0°F3.63.6
Mon, Nov 2Final record61.0°F55.9°F3.36.8
Tue, Nov 3Final record72.0°F61.0°F0.06.8
Wed, Nov 4Final record68.0°F52.0°F2.59.3
Thu, Nov 5Final record53.1°F44.1°F8.818.1
Fri, Nov 6Final record48.9°F36.0°F12.230.3
Sat, Nov 7Final record51.1°F33.1°F12.442.7
Sun, Nov 8Final record61.0°F39.9°F7.750.5
Mon, Nov 9Final record60.1°F39.0°F8.358.7
Tue, Nov 10Final record66.0°F45.0°F5.063.7
Wed, Nov 11Final record57.9°F42.1°F8.071.7
Thu, Nov 12Final record46.9°F39.0°F11.983.6
Fri, Nov 13Forecast41.2°F32.4°F15.4 ± 1.898.9
Sat, Nov 14Forecast45.7°F32.2°F14.2 ± 1.8113.1
Sun, Nov 15Forecast47.7°F31.3°F13.8 ± 1.8126.9
Mon, Nov 16Forecast51.4°F37.8°F11.0 ± 1.9137.9
Tue, Nov 17Forecast55.0°F39.4°F9.6 ± 2.0147.5
Wed, Nov 18Forecast57.6°F42.8°F7.9 ± 2.2155.4
Thu, Nov 19Forecast56.1°F45.7°F7.5 ± 2.4162.9
Fri, Nov 20Forecast58.6°F43.9°F7.3 ± 2.6170.2
Sat, Nov 21Forecast61.9°F39.2°F7.7 ± 2.8177.9
Sun, Nov 22Forecast42.4°F27.0°F16.5 ± 3.0194.4
Mon, Nov 23Forecast30.2°F23.5°F20.9 ± 3.3215.3
Tue, Nov 24Forecast32.4°F23.0°F20.4 ± 3.5235.7
Wed, Nov 25Forecast35.6°F25.7°F18.8 ± 3.7254.4
Thu, Nov 26Forecast41.7°F27.9°F16.4 ± 4.0270.9
Fri, Nov 27Forecast47.5°F32.9°F13.4 ± 4.2284.3
Sat, Nov 28Beyond the forecast35.4°F27.7°F18.2 ± 4.5302.6
Sun, Nov 29Beyond the forecast35.4°F27.7°F18.2 ± 4.5320.8
Mon, Nov 30Beyond the forecast35.4°F27.7°F18.2 ± 4.5339.0

Market index path

one step per trade · dashed line: model fair now
271.0310.7350.3

Recent trades

TimeTradeSharesAmountAvg price
11-13 19:50Buy shortpair22.129.8044.3¢
11-13 17:50Buy long109.8760.0054.6¢
11-13 16:50Buy shortpair32.1914.9246.4¢
11-13 16:50Buy long114.0160.0052.6¢
11-13 13:50Buy shortpair32.4015.6848.4¢
11-13 13:50Buy long118.7460.0050.5¢
11-13 12:50Buy long126.4060.0047.5¢
11-13 11:50Buy long97.2943.4844.7¢
11-13 09:50Buy long70.8530.2042.6¢
11-13 08:50Buy long23.689.8241.5¢
11-13 07:50Buy long152.4660.0039.4¢
11-13 06:50Buy longpair16.116.0237.4¢
11-13 04:50Buy longpair12.704.7037.0¢
11-13 02:50Buy longpair8.383.0836.8¢
11-13 02:50Buy short81.5850.8862.4¢

A trade marked pair is one leg of a simulated spread trade: the other leg is in a real-asset contract that follows this index.

Settlement

KORD is a US station, so this contract settles on the NWS daily climate report (CLI) of each of its 30 days: the index is the sum built from the high and low the National Weather Service prints. The local forecast office issues each report after local midnight, normally within one to three hours, and the contract settles one day after the last report is issued - about 12-02 08:00. A corrected report replaces the earlier one and the day runs again from it. If any day has no final report three days after the period ends, the contract is void and every position is refunded at cost. NWS CLI Watch ↗

Contract specification

Symbol
HDD-KORD-NOV26
Index
Heating degree days (HDD), in °C-days
Formula
max(0, 18 - (high + low) / 2), summed over the period
Station
KORD · Chicago
Period
November 2026 · 30 local days, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-30
Band
220 to 390
Payoff
Long: (index - 220) / 170 sUSDT per share, held to 0..1. Short: 1 minus that.
Point value
0.0059 sUSDT per share per index point
Trading closes
2026-11-30 06:00 UTC
Settles
One day after the NWS climate report for the last day is issued
Settlement source
The NWS daily climate report (CLI) of each day, as carried by the Weather Market oracle
Hedges
Energy - Natural gas, Heating oil, District heat (the exposure it hedges; this contract settles on the index)
Trade HDD-KORD-NOV26

Long gains if HDD finishes above the level you pay for.

Virtual sUSDT only. No monetary value.

Rules in short
  • Long gains when the index finishes higher, short when it finishes lower. A long and a short share together always pay 1 sUSDT.
  • Outside the band 220 to 390 the contract pays as if the index had finished on the edge.
  • You pay in full when you buy. What you paid is the most you can lose: no margin, no liquidation.
  • You can sell back to the market maker at any time before trading closes, when the last day of the period begins.
  • A US station: the index is built from the high and low in the NWS daily climate report of each day, and the contract settles a day after the last of those reports is issued. Void, with every position refunded at cost, if any day has no final report three days after the period ends.
Full rules →