OpenEnergy · Heating demandWeather index future · simulation
Paris heating degree days · November 2026
Heating degree days at LFPG · 30 local days, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-30 · trading closes 11-29 23:00 (16 d)
Market index
292.6°C-days
Long 54.5¢ · Short 45.5¢ per share
- Model fair
- 282.9 ± 22.2
- priced 23 min ago
- Edge
- -9.7
- fair minus market
- Volume
- 322
- 10 traders
- Open interest
- 400 / 236
- long / short shares
200 · long pays 0long pays 1 · 370
Market 292.6Model fair 282.9On the record 119.5 (12 of 30 days) - the index cannot finish below this
Listed at 285.7 · quoted by a market maker, no order book · one share moves 0.0059 sUSDT per index point
How the index builds, day by day
Final recordForecastBeyond the forecast
Each bar is one local day's contribution to the index. Days on the final record count as they stand; the rest are the model's estimate, with a whisker one standard deviation either way.
Day-by-day table
| Day | Source | High | Low | HDD | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 1 | Final record | 13.0°C | 5.0°C | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Mon, Nov 2 | Final record | 11.0°C | 8.0°C | 8.5 | 17.5 |
| Tue, Nov 3 | Final record | 10.0°C | 5.0°C | 10.5 | 28.0 |
| Wed, Nov 4 | Final record | 9.0°C | 5.0°C | 11.0 | 39.0 |
| Thu, Nov 5 | Final record | 11.0°C | 3.0°C | 11.0 | 50.0 |
| Fri, Nov 6 | Final record | 11.0°C | 6.0°C | 9.5 | 59.5 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | Final record | 8.0°C | 3.0°C | 12.5 | 72.0 |
| Sun, Nov 8 | Final record | 7.0°C | 4.0°C | 12.5 | 84.5 |
| Mon, Nov 9 | Final record | 9.0°C | 4.0°C | 11.5 | 96.0 |
| Tue, Nov 10 | Final record | 13.0°C | 7.0°C | 8.0 | 104.0 |
| Wed, Nov 11 | Final record | 15.0°C | 10.0°C | 5.5 | 109.5 |
| Thu, Nov 12 | Final record | 11.0°C | 5.0°C | 10.0 | 119.5 |
| Fri, Nov 13 | Forecast | 11.4°C | 3.4°C | 10.6 ± 1.8 | 130.1 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | Forecast | 11.1°C | 2.5°C | 11.2 ± 1.8 | 141.3 |
| Sun, Nov 15 | Forecast | 13.9°C | 4.8°C | 8.7 ± 1.8 | 150.0 |
| Mon, Nov 16 | Forecast | 12.0°C | 7.0°C | 8.5 ± 1.9 | 158.5 |
| Tue, Nov 17 | Forecast | 17.1°C | 8.6°C | 5.2 ± 2.0 | 163.6 |
| Wed, Nov 18 | Forecast | 15.8°C | 11.6°C | 4.3 ± 2.1 | 168.0 |
| Thu, Nov 19 | Forecast | 15.2°C | 10.9°C | 5.0 ± 2.4 | 172.9 |
| Fri, Nov 20 | Forecast | 13.8°C | 6.6°C | 7.8 ± 2.6 | 180.8 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | Forecast | 12.9°C | 7.5°C | 7.8 ± 2.7 | 188.6 |
| Sun, Nov 22 | Forecast | 12.2°C | 5.3°C | 9.3 ± 3.0 | 197.8 |
| Mon, Nov 23 | Forecast | 12.4°C | 6.0°C | 8.8 ± 3.2 | 206.6 |
| Tue, Nov 24 | Forecast | 10.2°C | 4.6°C | 10.6 ± 3.4 | 217.2 |
| Wed, Nov 25 | Forecast | 10.3°C | 5.2°C | 10.3 ± 3.6 | 227.5 |
| Thu, Nov 26 | Forecast | 10.2°C | 4.0°C | 10.9 ± 3.9 | 238.4 |
| Fri, Nov 27 | Forecast | 9.3°C | 2.1°C | 12.3 ± 4.1 | 250.7 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | Forecast | 10.0°C | 5.8°C | 10.1 ± 4.3 | 260.8 |
| Sun, Nov 29 | Beyond the forecast | 8.9°C | 4.9°C | 11.1 ± 4.5 | 271.9 |
| Mon, Nov 30 | Beyond the forecast | 8.9°C | 4.9°C | 11.1 ± 4.5 | 282.9 |
Market index path
one step per trade · dashed line: model fair nowRecent trades
| Time | Trade | Shares | Amount | Avg price | Index after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-13 14:50 | Buy short | 88.12 | 39.16 | 44.4¢ | 292.6 |
| 11-13 04:50 | Buy long | 62.09 | 34.70 | 55.9¢ | 296.3 |
| 11-13 00:50 | Buy long | 69.47 | 37.69 | 54.3¢ | 293.7 |
| 11-12 19:50 | Buy short | 38.63 | 17.82 | 46.1¢ | 290.8 |
| 11-12 16:50 | Buy long | 11.94 | 6.47 | 54.2¢ | 292.4 |
| 11-12 15:50 | Buy short | 46.44 | 21.07 | 45.4¢ | 291.9 |
| 11-12 09:50 | Buy long | 54.13 | 29.52 | 54.5¢ | 293.9 |
| 11-12 06:50 | Buy long | 104.24 | 54.80 | 52.6¢ | 291.6 |
| 11-12 02:50 | Buy short | 34.72 | 16.77 | 48.3¢ | 287.2 |
| 11-12 01:50 | Buy long | 98.36 | 50.07 | 50.9¢ | 288.6 |
| 11-12 00:50 | Buy short | 28.32 | 14.15 | 50.0¢ | 284.5 |
Settlement
This contract settles on the sum of the station's daily records, as soon as the oracle marks all 30 days final and settleable - no earlier than 12-01 02:00. If a day of the period cannot settle, the contract is void and every position is refunded at cost.
Contract specification
- Symbol
- HDD-LFPG-NOV26
- Index
- Heating degree days (HDD), in °C-days
- Formula
- max(0, 18 - (high + low) / 2), summed over the period
- Station
- LFPG · Paris
- Period
- November 2026 · 30 local days, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-30
- Band
- 200 to 370
- Payoff
- Long: (index - 200) / 170 sUSDT per share, held to 0..1. Short: 1 minus that.
- Point value
- 0.0059 sUSDT per share per index point
- Trading closes
- 2026-11-29 23:00 UTC
- Settles from
- 2026-12-01 02:00 UTC
- Settlement source
- The station's daily record, final and settleable, from the Weather Market oracle
- Hedges
- Energy - Natural gas, Heating oil, District heat (the exposure it hedges; this contract settles on the index)
Trade HDD-LFPG-NOV26
Long gains if HDD finishes above the level you pay for.
Virtual sUSDT only. No monetary value.
Rules in short
- Long gains when the index finishes higher, short when it finishes lower. A long and a short share together always pay 1 sUSDT.
- Outside the band 200 to 370 the contract pays as if the index had finished on the edge.
- You pay in full when you buy. What you paid is the most you can lose: no margin, no liquidation.
- You can sell back to the market maker at any time before trading closes, when the last day of the period begins.
- Void, with every position refunded at cost, if any day of the period cannot settle on the record.