What will the temperature in Budapest be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
6 tickets · 299 sUSDTOnly 17% of Budapest's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
6| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 16°C · 17°C · 18°C | 67.53 sUSDT | open |
| 23 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 16°C · 17°C · 18°C | 50.29 sUSDT | open |
| 28 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≤ 11°C · 12°C · 13°C | 30.48 sUSDT | open |
| 31 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 14°C · 15°C | 37.71 sUSDT | open |
| 35 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 17°C · 18°C · 19°C | 52.29 sUSDT | open |
| 37 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 14°C · 15°C · 16°C | 60.42 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 11°C at the bottom, ≥ 21°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →