What will the temperature in Honolulu be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
6 tickets · 151 sUSDTOnly 4% of Honolulu's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
6| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≤ 76°F · 77°F | 23.22 sUSDT | open |
| 14 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≥ 88°F | 21.57 sUSDT | open |
| 15 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 85°F | 16.45 sUSDT | open |
| 18 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 78°F | 14.59 sUSDT | open |
| 36 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 78°F · 79°F · 80°F | 30.62 sUSDT | open |
| 37 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 81°F · 82°F | 44.15 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °F: ≤ 76°F at the bottom, ≥ 88°F at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →