What will the temperature in Panama City be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
10 tickets · 176 sUSDTOnly 24% of Panama City's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
10| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 27°C | 8.82 sUSDT | open |
| 5 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≥ 31°C | 8.78 sUSDT | open |
| 20 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 24°C | 25.25 sUSDT | open |
| 21 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 24°C | 12.19 sUSDT | open |
| 21 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 27°C | 23.57 sUSDT | open |
| 29 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 26°C | 24.19 sUSDT | open |
| 30 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 24°C | 9.13 sUSDT | open |
| 30 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 28°C | 28.80 sUSDT | open |
| 33 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 26°C | 27.12 sUSDT | open |
| 36 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 29°C | 8.58 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 21°C at the bottom, ≥ 31°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →