What will the temperature in Sao Paulo be at 06:00 on Tuesday 29 September?
Live determination data
Crowd index
7 tickets · 229 sUSDTPositions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
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Recent tickets
7| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 min ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≤ 14°C · 15°C | 25.06 sUSDT | open |
| 4 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 20°C | 10.04 sUSDT | open |
| 6 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 15°C · 16°C | 32.21 sUSDT | open |
| 8 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 15°C | 18.80 sUSDT | open |
| 22 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 19°C · 20°C · 21°C | 70.94 sUSDT | open |
| 31 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 21°C | 12.00 sUSDT | open |
| 37 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 20°C · 21°C · 22°C | 59.78 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 14°C at the bottom, ≥ 24°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's METAR reading inside the same run; the pool is refunded if the run carries no METAR. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →