What will the temperature in New York be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
9 tickets · 229 sUSDTOnly 14% of New York's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
9| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 44°F | 5.48 sUSDT | lost |
| 23 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≥ 48°F | 8.95 sUSDT | won · 105.97 sUSDT |
| 24 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 38°F | 13.19 sUSDT | lost |
| 37 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 42°F | 19.99 sUSDT | lost |
| 37 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 45°F | 11.10 sUSDT | lost |
| 37 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 39°F · 40°F · 41°F | 44.50 sUSDT | lost |
| 42 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 45°F · 46°F | 51.43 sUSDT | lost |
| 44 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 38°F | 28.80 sUSDT | lost |
| 2 d ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 40°F · 41°F · 42°F | 45.30 sUSDT | lost |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °F: ≤ 36°F at the bottom, ≥ 48°F at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →