What will the temperature in Los Angeles be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
8 tickets · 170 sUSDTOnly 11% of Los Angeles's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
8| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 73°F | 6.52 sUSDT | lost |
| 19 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 68°F · 69°F · 70°F | 37.52 sUSDT | lost |
| 19 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≤ 65°F · 66°F | 14.67 sUSDT | won · 139.43 sUSDT |
| 30 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 68°F | 18.75 sUSDT | lost |
| 46 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 74°F · 75°F | 22.69 sUSDT | lost |
| 2 d ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 71°F | 4.12 sUSDT | lost |
| 2 d ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 70°F | 26.58 sUSDT | lost |
| 3 d ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 72°F · 73°F · 74°F | 38.93 sUSDT | lost |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °F: ≤ 65°F at the bottom, ≥ 77°F at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →