Pick the temperature/Nice·France

What will the temperature in Nice be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?

resolvedTarget hour 2026-11-13 06:00 UTC · your time 06:00Ladder ≤ 7°C … ≥ 17°CForecast at listing 12.3°CTickets closed

Live determination data

weathermarket.ai ↗

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METAR baseline now

no METAR in this run

Consensus now

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Last 24 hourly runs, in UTC. The ladder's range is shaded; the reading at 06:00 on the target day settles each pool.

Crowd index

7 tickets · 157 sUSDT

What the tickets say the reading will be, under each reference. Moves with every ticket.

Crowd · consensus

12.4°C

most likely 13°C · spread ±2.5

Crowd · METAR

12.6°C

most likely 13°C · spread ±2.5

Probability by degree

Crowd expectation, ticket by ticket

Your ticket

1 · Which reading judges you

2 · Pick one or more degrees · price = crowd probability under Consensus

3 · Stake per degree

sUSDT

Pick at least one degree to see the price.

Positions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.

Result

run run_xTU33fFPvi

Consensus

13.0°C → 13°C

verdict verified

METAR baseline

13.0°C → 13°C

METAR LFMN 130600Z 36004KT 320V040 CAVOK 13/12 Q0993 BECMG 07012KT

My tickets

No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.

Recent tickets

When	Who	Judged by	Degrees	Cost	Outcome
27 h ago	simulated participant	Consensus	13°C	19.40 sUSDT	won · 101.01 sUSDT
34 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	16°C	13.32 sUSDT	lost
39 h ago	simulated participant	Consensus	13°C	20.23 sUSDT	won · 122.73 sUSDT
43 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	13°C	10.74 sUSDT	won · 55.85 sUSDT
2 d ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	15°C	22.30 sUSDT	lost
2 d ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	12°C · 13°C · 14°C	55.37 sUSDT	won · 119.02 sUSDT
3 d ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	13°C	15.57 sUSDT	won · 96.26 sUSDT

Rules

The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 7°C at the bottom, ≥ 17°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).

Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.

Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.

Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →