Pick the temperature/Geneva·Switzerland

What will the temperature in Geneva be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?

resolvedTarget hour 2026-11-13 06:00 UTC · your time 06:00Ladder ≤ 1°C … ≥ 11°CForecast at listing 6.1°CTickets closed

Live determination data

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reading the runs…

METAR baseline now

no METAR in this run

Consensus now

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Last 24 hourly runs, in UTC. The ladder's range is shaded; the reading at 06:00 on the target day settles each pool.

Crowd index

11 tickets · 348 sUSDT

What the tickets say the reading will be, under each reference. Moves with every ticket.

Crowd · consensus

6.1°C

most likely 6°C · spread ±2.6

Crowd · METAR

5.5°C

most likely 7°C · spread ±2.9

Probability by degree

Crowd expectation, ticket by ticket

Your ticket

1 · Which reading judges you

Only 33% of Geneva's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.

2 · Pick one or more degrees · price = crowd probability under METAR baseline

3 · Stake per degree

sUSDT

Pick at least one degree to see the price.

Positions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.

Result

run run_xTU33fFPvi

Consensus

7.2°C → 7°C

verdict verified

METAR baseline

7.0°C → 7°C

METAR LSGG 130550Z AUTO 03014KT 9999 BKN018 07/04 Q1005 NOSIG

My tickets

No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.

Recent tickets

When	Who	Judged by	Degrees	Cost	Outcome
16 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	≤ 1°C · 2°C · 3°C	57.35 sUSDT	lost
17 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	7°C · 8°C	32.40 sUSDT	won · 176.67 sUSDT
24 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	6°C	27.79 sUSDT	lost
27 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	8°C	26.61 sUSDT	lost
32 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	≥ 11°C	17.54 sUSDT	lost
40 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	6°C	15.39 sUSDT	lost
43 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	5°C · 6°C · 7°C	58.12 sUSDT	won · 159.21 sUSDT
2 d ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	≤ 1°C · 2°C · 3°C	24.00 sUSDT	lost
2 d ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	7°C	10.88 sUSDT	won · 79.82 sUSDT
2 d ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	≤ 1°C · 2°C · 3°C	49.58 sUSDT	lost
2 d ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	2°C	28.61 sUSDT	lost

Rules

The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 1°C at the bottom, ≥ 11°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).

Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.

Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.

Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →