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Pick the temperature/Venice·Italy

What will the temperature in Venice be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?

resolvedTarget hour 2026-11-13 06:00 UTC · your time 06:00Ladder ≤ 6°C … ≥ 16°CForecast at listing 11.2°CTickets closed

Live determination data

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METAR baseline now
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Consensus now
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Last 24 hourly runs, in UTC. The ladder's range is shaded; the reading at 06:00 on the target day settles each pool.

Crowd index

10 tickets · 312 sUSDT
What the tickets say the reading will be, under each reference. Moves with every ticket.
Crowd · consensus
11.5°C
most likely 12°C · spread ±2.7
Crowd · METAR
10.8°C
most likely 9°C · spread ±2.6
Probability by degree
8%16%forecast 11.2°C≤6°C7°C8°C9°C10°C11°C12°C13°C14°C15°C≥16°C
Crowd expectation, ticket by ticket
10.8°C11.5°C11.5°C10.8°C11 Nov, 09:3513 Nov, 04:08
Your ticket
1 · Which reading judges you
2 · Pick one or more degrees · price = crowd probability under Consensus
3 · Stake per degree
sUSDT
Pick at least one degree to see the price.
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Result

run run_xTU33fFPvi
Consensus
12.9°C → 13°C
verdict verified
METAR baseline
13.0°C → 13°C
METAR LIPZ 130550Z 28005KT 260V330 9999 BKN045 13/13 Q0994 NOSIG

My tickets

0

No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.

Recent tickets

10
WhenWhoJudged byDegreesCostOutcome
14 h agosimulated participantConsensus14°C15.20 sUSDTlost
20 h agosimulated participantMETAR baseline8°C · 9°C · 10°C25.58 sUSDTlost
30 h agosimulated participantMETAR baseline7°C · 8°C · 9°C65.91 sUSDTlost
30 h agosimulated participantMETAR baseline9°C5.61 sUSDTlost
32 h agosimulated participantConsensus12°C15.92 sUSDTlost
33 h agosimulated participantConsensus14°C · 15°C · ≥ 16°C57.65 sUSDTlost
33 h agosimulated participantConsensus9°C · 10°C · 11°C62.14 sUSDTlost
33 h agosimulated participantConsensus10°C21.47 sUSDTlost
2 d agosimulated participantConsensus7°C17.38 sUSDTlost
2 d agosimulated participantConsensus12°C25.47 sUSDTlost

Rules

The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 6°C at the bottom, ≥ 16°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).

Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.

Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.

Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →