What will the temperature in Naples be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
10 tickets · 262 sUSDTPositions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
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Recent tickets
10| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 18°C · 19°C | 24.38 sUSDT | won · 102.85 sUSDT |
| 22 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 18°C · 19°C | 26.05 sUSDT | won · 119.24 sUSDT |
| 25 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 18°C | 5.08 sUSDT | lost |
| 27 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 22°C | 23.39 sUSDT | lost |
| 29 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 20°C | 10.60 sUSDT | lost |
| 31 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 16°C · 17°C | 43.74 sUSDT | lost |
| 33 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 19°C | 14.62 sUSDT | won · 96.54 sUSDT |
| 34 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 17°C · 18°C · 19°C | 60.69 sUSDT | won · 64.16 sUSDT |
| 3 d ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 15°C · 16°C | 50.76 sUSDT | lost |
| 3 d ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 20°C | 3.16 sUSDT | lost |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 14°C at the bottom, ≥ 24°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →