What will the temperature in Sofia be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
6 tickets · 138 sUSDTPositions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
Sign in or open an accountMy tickets
0No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.
Recent tickets
6| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 17°C | 11.58 sUSDT | open |
| 5 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 16°C · 17°C | 40.20 sUSDT | open |
| 24 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 13°C | 24.29 sUSDT | open |
| 34 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 13°C | 12.92 sUSDT | open |
| 42 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 11°C · 12°C | 35.51 sUSDT | open |
| 44 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 12°C | 13.11 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 8°C at the bottom, ≥ 18°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →