What will the temperature in Denver be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
8 tickets · 255 sUSDTOnly 10% of Denver's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
Positions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
Sign in or open an accountResult
run run_xTU33fFPviMy tickets
0No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.
Recent tickets
8| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≤ 47°F · 48°F · 49°F | 42.97 sUSDT | won · 211.00 sUSDT |
| 20 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 53°F | 26.05 sUSDT | lost |
| 26 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 53°F · 54°F · 55°F | 42.29 sUSDT | lost |
| 30 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 50°F · 51°F | 32.44 sUSDT | lost |
| 36 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≤ 47°F · 48°F | 31.92 sUSDT | won · 265.79 sUSDT |
| 42 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 51°F · 52°F | 32.25 sUSDT | lost |
| 45 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 51°F | 24.04 sUSDT | lost |
| 46 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 48°F · 49°F | 22.96 sUSDT | lost |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °F: ≤ 47°F at the bottom, ≥ 59°F at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →