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Pick the temperature/Montreal·Canada

What will the temperature in Montreal be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?

resolvedTarget hour 2026-11-13 06:00 UTC · your time 06:00Ladder ≤ -4°C … ≥ 6°CForecast at listing 1.2°CTickets closed

Live determination data

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METAR baseline now
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no METAR in this run
Consensus now
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Last 24 hourly runs, in UTC. The ladder's range is shaded; the reading at 06:00 on the target day settles each pool.

Crowd index

8 tickets · 225 sUSDT
What the tickets say the reading will be, under each reference. Moves with every ticket.
Crowd · consensus
1.2°C
most likely 2°C · spread ±2.3
Crowd · METAR
1.2°C
most likely 3°C · spread ±2.6
Probability by degree
10%20%forecast 1.2°C≤-4°C-3°C-2°C-1°C0°C1°C2°C3°C4°C5°C≥6°C
Crowd expectation, ticket by ticket
1.1°C1.2°C1.2°C1.2°C11 Nov, 11:3513 Nov, 02:35
Your ticket
1 · Which reading judges you
2 · Pick one or more degrees · price = crowd probability under Consensus
3 · Stake per degree
sUSDT
Pick at least one degree to see the price.
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Result

run run_xTU33fFPvi
Consensus
0.6°C → 1°C
verdict verified
METAR baseline
0.0°C → 0°C
METAR CYUL 130600Z 01005KT 15SM FEW033 FEW250 M00/M04 A2973 RMK SC1CI1 SLP070

My tickets

0

No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.

Recent tickets

8
WhenWhoJudged byDegreesCostOutcome
18 h agosimulated participantConsensus1°C · 2°C · 3°C74.18 sUSDTwon · 149.95 sUSDT
23 h agosimulated participantConsensus2°C20.21 sUSDTlost
24 h agosimulated participantConsensus0°C13.77 sUSDTlost
33 h agosimulated participantConsensus1°C · 2°C23.59 sUSDTwon · 98.85 sUSDT
33 h agosimulated participantConsensus1°C · 2°C18.04 sUSDTwon · 51.25 sUSDT
33 h agosimulated participantMETAR baseline3°C · 4°C30.02 sUSDTlost
34 h agosimulated participantMETAR baseline-1°C23.88 sUSDTlost
2 d agosimulated participantConsensus-1°C · 0°C21.25 sUSDTlost

Rules

The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ -4°C at the bottom, ≥ 6°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).

Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.

Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.

Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →