What will the temperature in Tokyo be at 06:00 on Saturday 14 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
7 tickets · 222 sUSDTOnly 35% of Tokyo's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
7| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 17°C · 18°C · 19°C | 47.08 sUSDT | open |
| 3 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 17°C · 18°C | 14.97 sUSDT | open |
| 7 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 22°C | 25.37 sUSDT | open |
| 9 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 17°C · 18°C | 42.42 sUSDT | open |
| 28 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 17°C | 12.60 sUSDT | open |
| 30 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 18°C · 19°C · 20°C | 59.36 sUSDT | open |
| 39 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 19°C | 20.62 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 13°C at the bottom, ≥ 23°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →