What will the temperature in Frankfurt be at 06:00 on Saturday 14 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
6 tickets · 192 sUSDTOnly 0% of Frankfurt's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
6| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 2°C · 3°C · 4°C | 34.22 sUSDT | open |
| 6 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 1°C | 10.92 sUSDT | open |
| 7 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 4°C | 24.09 sUSDT | open |
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 1°C · 2°C · 3°C | 38.70 sUSDT | open |
| 13 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 1°C · 2°C · 3°C | 63.07 sUSDT | open |
| 29 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 1°C · 2°C | 20.60 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ -2°C at the bottom, ≥ 8°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →