Pick the temperature/Tallinn·Estonia

What will the temperature in Tallinn be at 06:00 on Saturday 14 November?

openTarget hour 2026-11-14 06:00 UTC · your time 06:00Ladder ≤ -1°C … ≥ 9°CForecast at listing 3.7°CTickets close in 18 h

Live determination data

weathermarket.ai ↗

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METAR baseline now

no METAR in this run

Consensus now

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Last 24 hourly runs, in UTC. The ladder's range is shaded; the reading at 06:00 on the target day settles each pool.

Crowd index

4 tickets · 203 sUSDT

What the tickets say the reading will be, under each reference. Moves with every ticket.

Crowd · consensus

3.7°C

most likely 4°C · spread ±2.6

Crowd · METAR

3.3°C

most likely 4°C · spread ±2.5

Probability by degree

Crowd expectation, ticket by ticket

Your ticket

1 · Which reading judges you

Only 0% of Tallinn's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.

2 · Pick one or more degrees · price = crowd probability under METAR baseline

3 · Stake per degree

sUSDT

Pick at least one degree to see the price.

Positions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.

My tickets

No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.

Recent tickets

When	Who	Judged by	Degrees	Cost	Outcome
5 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	2°C	17.17 sUSDT	open
22 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	3°C · 4°C · 5°C	55.41 sUSDT	open
25 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	≤ -1°C · 0°C · 1°C	55.98 sUSDT	open
27 h ago	simulated participant	METAR baseline	2°C · 3°C · 4°C	74.02 sUSDT	open

Rules

The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ -1°C at the bottom, ≥ 9°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).

Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.

Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.

Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →