What will the temperature in Vilnius be at 06:00 on Saturday 14 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
9 tickets · 326 sUSDTPositions and balances belong to an account. Opening one takes an email and a password, and every balance is virtual sUSDT.
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Recent tickets
9| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 2°C · 3°C | 23.47 sUSDT | open |
| 5 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 6°C · 7°C · ≥ 8°C | 60.92 sUSDT | open |
| 5 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 4°C | 22.43 sUSDT | open |
| 8 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 7°C · ≥ 8°C | 46.69 sUSDT | open |
| 8 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 3°C · 4°C | 54.47 sUSDT | open |
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 5°C · 6°C | 31.35 sUSDT | open |
| 17 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 3°C | 28.44 sUSDT | open |
| 24 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | -1°C | 24.19 sUSDT | open |
| 26 h ago | simulated participant | Consensus | 4°C · 5°C | 34.00 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ -2°C at the bottom, ≥ 8°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →