What will the temperature in San Francisco be at 06:00 on Saturday 14 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
8 tickets · 246 sUSDTOnly 26% of San Francisco's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
8| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 63°F | 12.30 sUSDT | open |
| 11 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 58°F · 59°F · 60°F | 55.59 sUSDT | open |
| 12 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 56°F · 57°F | 45.28 sUSDT | open |
| 24 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 56°F | 15.12 sUSDT | open |
| 29 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 56°F · 57°F | 30.52 sUSDT | open |
| 31 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≥ 65°F | 27.99 sUSDT | open |
| 32 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 60°F · 61°F | 35.38 sUSDT | open |
| 36 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≤ 53°F | 24.21 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °F: ≤ 53°F at the bottom, ≥ 65°F at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →