What will the temperature in Philadelphia be at 06:00 on Saturday 14 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
9 tickets · 270 sUSDTOnly 2% of Philadelphia's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
9| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 39°F | 24.36 sUSDT | open |
| 4 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | ≥ 44°F | 10.16 sUSDT | open |
| 4 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 37°F | 21.88 sUSDT | open |
| 5 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 40°F · 41°F · 42°F | 58.04 sUSDT | open |
| 6 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 37°F | 26.95 sUSDT | open |
| 6 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 39°F · 40°F · 41°F | 42.93 sUSDT | open |
| 8 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 37°F | 29.23 sUSDT | open |
| 15 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 41°F · 42°F | 47.93 sUSDT | open |
| 20 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 36°F | 8.68 sUSDT | open |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °F: ≤ 32°F at the bottom, ≥ 44°F at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →