Cities / Europe

Warsaw

Poland·Europe·EPWA·52.23, 21.01

Grade BSettles reliably91%of hours settle-eligible (7d)· 73% (30d)

weathermarket.ai ↗Insure this city Open a market

Hourly consensus

verified

Temperature

13.9°C

Humidity

76%

Wind

2.4m/s

Precipitation

0.0mm

WDI: 44.20
TDI: 54.90
Sources: 11 / 11
Settlement: eligible

Indices · this hour

History & sources on weathermarket.ai ↗Index spec ↗

WDIheadline

44.2

Weather Data Index

Composite of temperature, humidity, wind and rain, 0–100 · unit-free

TDI

54.9

Temperature Data Index

The temperature component on its own, 0–100 · unit-free

Index history · last 7 days · one point per run

WDITDItemp °Cfull history on weathermarket.ai ↗

Loading history…

Run run_przWc3jKqa

Anchor 0x575922db…11fcbb ↗

as of 2026-09-28 22:01 UTC

refreshed 24 min ago (cached)

Live consensus feed

Reading the run…

weathermarket.ai · the oracle

Eleven independent feeds every hour: two measured at the station, nine numerical models from national weather services.
Outliers excluded per metric, corroboration counted between the measured sources, and a verdict per metric on whether the hour can settle.
Every run hashed and anchored on a public ledger, so the number a market settles on can be checked after the fact.
Station records for the local calendar day with the raw METAR behind each extreme, and a 16-day forecast cut on station time.

weathermarket.io · this simulator

Turns each run into tradeable markets and parametric covers on 167 cities: hourly conditions, station-day extremes and index thresholds.
Prices from the forecast and the index history, shown next to the market so the edge is visible, with a living order book to trade against.
Lists next-day products only where the oracle's recent hours settle, and shows this feed on every market so the evidence is on the page before settlement.
Settles on the oracle's determination and nothing else, with the run, the anchor and the readings kept on the settled market.

Readings and verdict from the oracle's own run as served to a subscriber. The rule that turns eleven readings into one number is the oracle's and is not disclosed; what it decided is.Powered by Weather Data Market

Daily forecast

16 days

HighLowAverageRain2026-09-28 onward · hover a day for every figure

Date	Avg °C	Max	Min	Rain mm	Hum %	Wind m/s	Src
2026-09-28	14.8	21.3	10.6	0.0	68	1.9	2
2026-09-29	15.0	21.0	11.0	0.0	62	2.4	2
2026-09-30	15.2	21.0	11.2	0.0	58	2.7	2
2026-10-01	13.5	19.5	11.6	0.0	75	3.0	2
2026-10-02	13.3	19.5	10.1	0.0	73	2.5	2
2026-10-03	13.3	18.9	9.2	0.0	74	2.2	2
2026-10-04	12.6	17.5	9.7	0.0	83	1.5	2
2026-10-05	12.0	15.9	9.3	0.0	82	2.2	1
2026-10-06	11.8	16.7	8.1	0.0	79	2.6	1
2026-10-07	12.7	17.7	7.8	0.0	82	2.2	1
2026-10-08	13.1	18.6	8.1	2.8	72	4.8	1
2026-10-09	8.7	11.2	6.3	1.4	72	5.1	1
2026-10-10	8.0	12.3	4.6	0.0	73	2.9	1
2026-10-11	10.4	16.1	5.0	0.0	72	2.5	1
2026-10-12	11.8	16.4	8.9	0.0	79	1.2	1
2026-10-13	8.0	9.9	6.1	14.1	72	2.1	1

Open markets 59

Product board →

Question	Model	Market	Edge	Closes	Volume
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	25%	32%	-7	6 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	6%	53%	-47	6 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≤ 13°C at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	26%	29%	-3	6 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 65% at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	59%	58%	+1	6 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	49%	54%	-5	6 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw wind ≥ 3m/s at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	33%	33%	0	6 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	74%	58%	+16	6 h	120 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 70% at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	36%	40%	-5	6 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 16°C at 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-29 06:00 UTC	9%	24%	-15	6 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	72%	52%	+21	30 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	4%	46%	-42	30 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 75% at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	10%	50%	-39	30 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	32%	30%	+1	30 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-30 06:00 UTC	52%	53%	0	30 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC? target 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC	67%	46%	+21	2 d	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC? target 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC	50%	50%	0	2 d	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 16°C at 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC? target 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC	18%	21%	-3	2 d	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC? target 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC	32%	25%	+7	2 d	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC? target 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC	49%	46%	+3	2 d	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC? target 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC	48%	51%	-2	3 d	0 sUSDT

Recently settled

Question	Result	Settled
Will Warsaw temperature ≤ 13°C at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?	resolved YES	9 h ago
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 70% at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?	resolved YES	9 h ago
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 75% at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?	resolved YES	9 h ago
Will Warsaw wind ≥ 2m/s at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?	resolved YES	9 h ago
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	14 h ago

Station day · EPWA · 2026-09-29

2026-09-29 local · 22:00Z → 22:00Z UTC · +02:00

Reading the station…

Open a market

A YES/NO market on a condition at a whole UTC hour, settled by the oracle determination. Priced off the forecast; trading closes 1 h before the target hour.

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Buy a cover on Warsaw that pays the full amount when the condition is met at the target hour.

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