Buy the day's high, up to fifteen days ahead
Every day of the next fifteen has a ladder of lines on the station's daily high, priced from the oracle's sixteen-day forecast. The band around the forecast is how far it can be wrong at that lead - measured by Weather Market's Forecast Watch, which scores every model against the station records markets settle on. Each contract settles on the station's final, settleable day record, anchored on Flare.
Tokyo · station RJTT · daily high, next 15 local days
Weather Market's Forecast Watch keeps every model's forecast from before the day and scores it against the station's final record - the number these markets settle on. These prices use the Open-Meteo blend. Its forecast high has run 0.56°C cold against the station's recorded high, so prices add that back.
| Forecast made | Days scored | Typical miss | Bias | Within 1 °C |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| the day before | 4,751 | 1.41°C | -0.56°C | 47% |
| 2 days before | 4,595 | 1.47°C | -0.64°C | 45% |
| 3 days before | 4,435 | 1.54°C | -0.66°C | 43% |
| 4 days before | 4,268 | 1.70°C | -0.75°C | 40% |
| 5 days before | 4,103 | 1.87°C | -0.77°C | 37% |
| 6 days before | 3,941 | 2.14°C | -0.97°C | 32% |
| 7 days before | 3,779 | 2.34°C | -1.14°C | 29% |
Typical miss is the mean absolute error of the daily high; leads beyond the scored ones grow the measured level the way forecast error grows with lead. Window 2026-10-14 to 2026-11-14.
| Model | Day before | 3 days before | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| DWD ICON | 1.23°C | 1.42°C | -0.39°C |
| Open-Meteo blendpriced on | 1.41°C | 1.54°C | -0.56°C |
| UK Met Office | 1.47°C | 1.63°C | -0.58°C |
| ECMWF IFS | 1.50°C | 1.64°C | -0.75°C |
| NOAA GFS | 1.55°C | 1.70°C | -0.39°C |
| ECCC GEM | 1.58°C | 1.78°C | -0.69°C |
| Météo-France | 1.68°C | 1.87°C | -0.58°C |
| JMA | 1.90°C | 2.03°C | -1.24°C |
| KWeather | 1.93°C | 2.07°C | -1.07°C |
At RJTT itself, over 29 scored days, the closest model the day before was NOAA GFS (1.00°C off on average).
A YES or NO share on whether the station's high for that local day reaches the line. YES pays 1 sUSDT if it does, NO if it does not. Trading on a day closes when the day ends at the station.
The opening price is the forecast's probability: the forecast high, corrected by the bias Forecast Watch measured, with a spread that widens with the lead. Past the leads Forecast Watch scores (1 to 7 days), its measured slope is extended; until it has scored enough days, the lead-time model stands in. The crowd moves the price from there.
On the station's own record, once the oracle marks the day final (three hours after local midnight) and settleable (no reporting gap beyond the station's normal interval plus 30 minutes). Otherwise withheld: every position refunded at cost. Rules →