OpenEnergy · Heating demandWeather index future · simulation
Berlin heating degree days · Week 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 22
Heating degree days at EDDB · 7 local days, 2026-11-16 to 2026-11-22 · trading closes 11-21 23:00 (8 d)
Market index
82.5°C-days
Long 56.7¢ · Short 43.3¢ per share
- Model fair
- 82.0 ± 10.0
- priced 23 min ago
- Edge
- -0.5
- fair minus market
- Volume
- 390
- 10 traders
- Open interest
- 502 / 259
- long / short shares
40 · long pays 0long pays 1 · 115
Market 82.5Model fair 82.0
Listed at 78.0 · quoted by a market maker, no order book · one share moves 0.0133 sUSDT per index point
How the index builds, day by day
Forecast
Each bar is one local day's contribution to the index. Days on the final record count as they stand; the rest are the model's estimate, with a whisker one standard deviation either way.
Day-by-day table
| Day | Source | High | Low | HDD | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 16 | Forecast | 12.1°C | 4.1°C | 9.9 ± 1.9 | 9.9 |
| Tue, Nov 17 | Forecast | 10.2°C | 1.0°C | 12.4 ± 2.0 | 22.3 |
| Wed, Nov 18 | Forecast | 13.8°C | 7.7°C | 7.3 ± 2.2 | 29.6 |
| Thu, Nov 19 | Forecast | 13.0°C | 8.5°C | 7.3 ± 2.4 | 36.8 |
| Fri, Nov 20 | Forecast | 10.9°C | 0.9°C | 12.1 ± 2.6 | 48.9 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | Forecast | 4.3°C | -0.9°C | 16.3 ± 2.8 | 65.3 |
| Sun, Nov 22 | Forecast | 3.6°C | -1.2°C | 16.8 ± 3.0 | 82.0 |
Market index path
one step per trade · dashed line: model fair nowRecent trades
| Time | Trade | Shares | Amount | Avg price | Index after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-13 19:50 | Buy short | 144.33 | 60.00 | 41.6¢ | 82.5 |
| 11-13 16:50 | Buy long | 78.56 | 46.53 | 59.2¢ | 85.1 |
| 11-13 09:50 | Buy long | 48.50 | 27.98 | 57.7¢ | 83.7 |
| 11-13 08:50 | Buy long | 107.59 | 60.00 | 55.8¢ | 82.8 |
| 11-13 05:50 | Buy short | 39.90 | 17.98 | 45.1¢ | 80.8 |
| 11-12 23:50 | Buy long | 59.98 | 32.80 | 54.7¢ | 81.6 |
| 11-12 20:50 | Buy long | 104.54 | 55.03 | 52.6¢ | 80.5 |
| 11-12 15:50 | Buy long | 68.61 | 34.63 | 50.5¢ | 78.5 |
| 11-12 14:50 | Buy long | 34.48 | 16.96 | 49.2¢ | 77.2 |
| 11-12 07:50 | Buy short | 11.84 | 6.05 | 51.1¢ | 76.6 |
| 11-12 06:50 | Buy short | 63.08 | 31.64 | 50.2¢ | 76.8 |
Settlement
This contract settles on the sum of the station's daily records, as soon as the oracle marks all 7 days final and settleable - no earlier than 11-23 02:00. If a day of the period cannot settle, the contract is void and every position is refunded at cost.
Contract specification
- Symbol
- HDD-EDDB-26W47
- Index
- Heating degree days (HDD), in °C-days
- Formula
- max(0, 18 - (high + low) / 2), summed over the period
- Station
- EDDB · Berlin
- Period
- Week 47 · Nov 16 - Nov 22 · 7 local days, 2026-11-16 to 2026-11-22
- Band
- 40 to 115
- Payoff
- Long: (index - 40) / 75 sUSDT per share, held to 0..1. Short: 1 minus that.
- Point value
- 0.0133 sUSDT per share per index point
- Trading closes
- 2026-11-21 23:00 UTC
- Settles from
- 2026-11-23 02:00 UTC
- Settlement source
- The station's daily record, final and settleable, from the Weather Market oracle
- Hedges
- Energy - Natural gas, Heating oil, District heat (the exposure it hedges; this contract settles on the index)
Trade HDD-EDDB-26W47
Long gains if HDD finishes above the level you pay for.
Virtual sUSDT only. No monetary value.
Rules in short
- Long gains when the index finishes higher, short when it finishes lower. A long and a short share together always pay 1 sUSDT.
- Outside the band 40 to 115 the contract pays as if the index had finished on the edge.
- You pay in full when you buy. What you paid is the most you can lose: no margin, no liquidation.
- You can sell back to the market maker at any time before trading closes, when the last day of the period begins.
- Void, with every position refunded at cost, if any day of the period cannot settle on the record.