OpenEnergy · Heating demandWeather index future · simulation

Berlin heating degree days · Week 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 29

Heating degree days at EDDB · 7 local days, 2026-11-23 to 2026-11-29 · trading closes 11-28 23:00 (15 d)

Market index

99.7°C-days

Long 49.8¢ · Short 50.2¢ per share

Model fair: 97.2 ± 16.0; priced 23 min ago
Edge: -2.5; fair minus market
Volume: 575; 13 traders
Open interest: 575 / 574; long / short shares

40 · long pays 0long pays 1 · 160

Market 99.7Model fair 97.2

Listed at 99.7 · quoted by a market maker, no order book · one share moves 0.0083 sUSDT per index point

How the index builds, day by day

ForecastBeyond the forecast

Each bar is one local day's contribution to the index. Days on the final record count as they stand; the rest are the model's estimate, with a whisker one standard deviation either way.

Day-by-day table

Day	Source	High	Low	HDD	Running total
Mon, Nov 23	Forecast	7.8°C	0.3°C	13.9 ± 3.2	13.9
Tue, Nov 24	Forecast	7.5°C	3.2°C	12.7 ± 3.4	26.6
Wed, Nov 25	Forecast	5.2°C	2.5°C	14.2 ± 3.7	40.8
Thu, Nov 26	Forecast	6.5°C	1.8°C	13.8 ± 3.9	54.6
Fri, Nov 27	Forecast	6.0°C	-0.6°C	15.3 ± 4.1	69.9
Sat, Nov 28	Forecast	7.5°C	2.0°C	13.3 ± 4.3	83.2
Sun, Nov 29	Beyond the forecast	5.4°C	2.4°C	14.1 ± 4.5	97.2

Market index path

one step per trade · dashed line: model fair now

Recent trades

Time	Trade	Shares	Amount	Avg price	Index after
11-13 19:50	Buy short	123.24	60.00	48.7¢	99.7
11-13 18:50	Buy long	30.51	16.01	52.5¢	103.4
11-13 15:50	Buy long	31.76	16.42	51.7¢	102.5
11-13 14:50	Buy long	28.60	14.57	50.9¢	101.6
11-13 12:50	Buy long	122.31	60.00	49.1¢	100.7
11-13 11:50	Buy short	37.79	19.65	52.0¢	97.0
11-13 10:50	Buy long	78.60	37.33	47.5¢	98.2
11-13 04:50	Buy long	69.93	31.92	45.6¢	95.8
11-13 03:50	Buy short	48.05	26.25	54.6¢	93.7
11-13 01:50	Buy long	83.73	37.62	44.9¢	95.2
11-12 22:50	Buy long	54.38	23.51	43.2¢	92.7
11-12 16:50	Buy short	106.91	60.00	56.1¢	91.1
11-12 14:50	Buy short	112.34	60.00	53.4¢	94.2
11-12 04:50	Buy long	35.29	16.78	47.5¢	97.6
11-12 02:50	Buy short	114.89	59.12	51.5¢	96.5

Settlement

This contract settles on the sum of the station's daily records, as soon as the oracle marks all 7 days final and settleable - no earlier than 11-30 02:00. If a day of the period cannot settle, the contract is void and every position is refunded at cost.

Contract specification

Symbol: HDD-EDDB-26W48
Index: Heating degree days (HDD), in °C-days
Formula: max(0, 18 - (high + low) / 2), summed over the period
Station: EDDB · Berlin
Period: Week 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 29 · 7 local days, 2026-11-23 to 2026-11-29
Band: 40 to 160
Payoff: Long: (index - 40) / 120 sUSDT per share, held to 0..1. Short: 1 minus that.
Point value: 0.0083 sUSDT per share per index point
Trading closes: 2026-11-28 23:00 UTC
Settles from: 2026-11-30 02:00 UTC
Settlement source: The station's daily record, final and settleable, from the Weather Market oracle
Hedges: Energy - Natural gas, Heating oil, District heat (the exposure it hedges; this contract settles on the index)

Trade HDD-EDDB-26W48

Long gains if HDD finishes above the level you pay for.

Spend (sUSDT)

Virtual sUSDT only. No monetary value.

Rules in short

Long gains when the index finishes higher, short when it finishes lower. A long and a short share together always pay 1 sUSDT.
Outside the band 40 to 160 the contract pays as if the index had finished on the edge.
You pay in full when you buy. What you paid is the most you can lose: no margin, no liquidation.
You can sell back to the market maker at any time before trading closes, when the last day of the period begins.
Void, with every position refunded at cost, if any day of the period cannot settle on the record.

Full rules →