London heating degree days · Week 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 29
Heating degree days at EGLL · 7 local days, 2026-11-23 to 2026-11-29 · trading closes 11-29 00:00 (15 d)
- Model fair
- 68.6 ± 15.8
- priced 23 min ago
- Edge
- -7.5
- fair minus market
- Volume
- 693
- 13 traders
- Open interest
- 487 / 848
- long / short shares
Real-asset futures that follow this index
simulated pricesEach contract below is a commodity price index the demo simulates: 100 on the day it was listed, moved by this contract's HDD and by a simulated market factor. Weather-implied is the price at the index this market is trading at now; when it differs from the asset's own market price, simulated spread traders trade the two against each other.
| Contract | Market price | Weather-implied | Gap | Per 1% of index | Hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOIL-EGLL-26W48Heating oil | 94.57long 44¢ | 89.57 | +5.00 | +0.55% | 0.81 short per long share |
How the index builds, day by day
Each bar is one local day's contribution to the index. Days on the final record count as they stand; the rest are the model's estimate, with a whisker one standard deviation either way.
Day-by-day table
| Day | Source | High | Low | HDD | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 23 | Forecast | 12.5°C | 6.0°C | 8.8 ± 3.2 | 8.8 |
| Tue, Nov 24 | Forecast | 10.0°C | 3.9°C | 11.1 ± 3.4 | 19.8 |
| Wed, Nov 25 | Forecast | 8.1°C | 3.2°C | 12.3 ± 3.7 | 32.1 |
| Thu, Nov 26 | Forecast | 8.3°C | 3.5°C | 12.1 ± 3.9 | 44.3 |
| Fri, Nov 27 | Forecast | 13.3°C | 5.8°C | 8.5 ± 4.0 | 52.7 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | Forecast | 13.4°C | 11.6°C | 5.7 ± 4.0 | 58.4 |
| Sun, Nov 29 | Beyond the forecast | 9.5°C | 6.2°C | 10.2 ± 4.4 | 68.6 |
Market index path
one step per trade · dashed line: model fair nowRecent trades
| Time | Trade | Shares | Amount | Avg price | Index after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-13 19:50 | Buy longpair | 34.32 | 13.04 | 38.0¢ | 76.1 |
| 11-13 19:50 | Buy short | 45.40 | 28.09 | 61.9¢ | 75.1 |
| 11-13 18:50 | Buy short | 99.76 | 60.00 | 60.1¢ | 76.4 |
| 11-13 17:50 | Buy short | 89.46 | 51.76 | 57.9¢ | 79.3 |
| 11-13 16:50 | Buy short | 108.24 | 60.00 | 55.4¢ | 81.9 |
| 11-13 14:50 | Buy short | 105.46 | 55.66 | 52.8¢ | 85.1 |
| 11-13 13:50 | Buy longpair | 14.25 | 6.89 | 48.4¢ | 88.2 |
| 11-13 13:50 | Buy short | 119.21 | 60.00 | 50.3¢ | 87.8 |
| 11-13 10:50 | Buy short | 126.96 | 60.00 | 47.3¢ | 91.4 |
| 11-13 08:50 | Buy long | 48.42 | 26.01 | 53.7¢ | 95.2 |
| 11-13 05:50 | Buy long | 39.14 | 20.60 | 52.6¢ | 93.7 |
| 11-13 03:50 | Buy long | 45.92 | 23.68 | 51.6¢ | 92.6 |
| 11-12 21:50 | Buy long | 109.45 | 54.32 | 49.6¢ | 91.2 |
| 11-12 13:50 | Buy short | 54.33 | 27.74 | 51.1¢ | 87.9 |
| 11-12 10:50 | Buy short | 55.16 | 27.41 | 49.7¢ | 89.5 |
A trade marked pair is one leg of a simulated spread trade: the other leg is in a real-asset contract that follows this index.
Settlement
This contract settles on the sum of the station's daily records, as soon as the oracle marks all 7 days final and settleable - no earlier than 11-30 03:00. If a day of the period cannot settle, the contract is void and every position is refunded at cost.
Contract specification
- Symbol
- HDD-EGLL-26W48
- Index
- Heating degree days (HDD), in °C-days
- Formula
- max(0, 18 - (high + low) / 2), summed over the period
- Station
- EGLL · London
- Period
- Week 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 29 · 7 local days, 2026-11-23 to 2026-11-29
- Band
- 30 to 150
- Payoff
- Long: (index - 30) / 120 sUSDT per share, held to 0..1. Short: 1 minus that.
- Point value
- 0.0083 sUSDT per share per index point
- Trading closes
- 2026-11-29 00:00 UTC
- Settles from
- 2026-11-30 03:00 UTC
- Settlement source
- The station's daily record, final and settleable, from the Weather Market oracle
- Hedges
- Energy - Natural gas, Heating oil, District heat (the exposure it hedges; this contract settles on the index)
Long gains if HDD finishes above the level you pay for.
Virtual sUSDT only. No monetary value.
- Long gains when the index finishes higher, short when it finishes lower. A long and a short share together always pay 1 sUSDT.
- Outside the band 30 to 150 the contract pays as if the index had finished on the edge.
- You pay in full when you buy. What you paid is the most you can lose: no margin, no liquidation.
- You can sell back to the market maker at any time before trading closes, when the last day of the period begins.
- Void, with every position refunded at cost, if any day of the period cannot settle on the record.