OpenEnergySimulated priceReal-asset future · simulation

Heating oil · London · Week 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 29

Heating oil price index, 100 at listing · follows HDD-EGLL-26W48 · 2026-11-23 to 2026-11-29 · trading closes 11-29 00:00 (15 d)

This price is made by the demo. Weather Fi has no commodity price feed. The price on this page is an index the simulator builds from the linked weather index and a simulated market factor, to show how a real-asset future would trade beside a weather index future. It is not the price of heating oil on any market, and it trades and settles in virtual sUSDT only.

Market price · simulated

94.57points · 100 at listing

Long 44.0¢ · Short 56.0¢ per share

Reference price: 85.00 ± 12.21; priced 23 min ago
Weather-implied: 89.57; market is +5.00 to it
Volume: 302; 6 traders
Open interest: 174 / 416; long / short shares

55 · long pays 0long pays 1 · 145

Market 94.57Reference 85.00Weather-implied 89.57

Listed at 100.00 · quoted by a market maker, no order book · one share moves 0.0111 sUSDT per price point

Where this price comes from

real weather × a simulated market

Heating oil demand follows the cold, more loosely than gas: the simulated price rises with heating degree days.

The weather it follows · real

HDD-EGLL-26W48London heating degree days · Week 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 29

Model index: 68.6; ± 15.8
Market index: 76.1; long 38¢
At listing: 86.7; this contract's base

Heating degree days from the station record and forecast. No day of the period is on the record yet.

The price · simulated

Listing level: 100.00
Weather effectindex 68.6 against 86.7 at listing: -11.5%× 0.8853
Market factorsimulated, stepped 23 min ago: -4.0%× 0.9601
Reference price: 85.00

One index point moves the price by +0.609 points. The weather effect is held to ±60%.

The market factor stands in for everything else that moves a commodity - supply, storage, freight, currencies. It is a random walk the simulator steps once an hour and freezes when trading closes. The sensitivity to the weather is an assumption of this simulation, not an estimate from market data.

Price and weather index, pass by pass

one point per hourly pricing pass

Market priceReference price (weather × market factor)HDD-EGLL-26W48 market indexHDD-EGLL-26W48 model index

The reference price moves when the weather index moves and when the market factor steps. The market price follows it as simulated participants trade, and spread traders close gaps between the two contracts.

Try a weather outcome

100 shares, bought at the current market price

Move the final HDD and see what a position here would make by itself, and what it would make with the weather exposure taken out by an offsetting position in HDD-EGLL-26W48.

Final HDD68.630model 68.6 · market 76.1150

Settlement price: 85.00; long share pays 0.333
This position alone: -10.64; 100 long HOIL
Weather hedge: +5.08; 81.26 short HDD
Hedged total: -5.56; sUSDT, both legs

This position aloneHedged with HDD-EGLL-26W48P&L in sUSDT against the final HDD

The hedged line is flat where both contracts are inside their bands: the weather is out of the result. What is left is the gap between the two markets today and the market factor, which is held here at its current -4.0% and is not hedged by a weather contract. Fills are taken at the quoted price, without the price impact of the trade.

Recent trades

Time	Trade	Shares	Amount	Avg price	Price after
11-13 19:50	Buy shortpair	42.70	23.70	55.5¢	94.57
11-13 17:50	Buy short	111.97	60.00	53.6¢	95.52
11-13 15:50	Buy short	90.92	46.42	51.1¢	98.03
11-13 13:50	Buy shortpair	17.34	8.62	49.7¢	100.07
11-13 10:50	Buy short	125.20	60.00	47.9¢	100.46
11-13 09:50	Buy long	27.38	14.59	53.3¢	103.27
11-12 22:50	Buy long	116.50	60.00	51.5¢	102.66
11-12 14:50	Buy short	28.08	13.93	49.6¢	100.04
11-12 06:50	Buy long	29.94	15.08	50.4¢	100.67

A trade marked pair is one leg of a simulated spread trade: the other leg is in the weather index contract this price follows.

Settlement

This contract settles right after HDD-EGLL-26W48 settles on the station record. The final price is the listing level of 100, moved by the weather effect at the final index and by the market factor as it stood when trading closed. If the weather contract is void, this one is void too and every position is refunded at cost.

Contract specification

Symbol: HOIL-EGLL-26W48
Underlying: Heating oil price index, simulated by this demo. 100 on the day of listing.
Follows: HDD-EGLL-26W48 · Heating degree days
Hub: EGLL · London
Period: Week 48 · Nov 23 - Nov 29 · 2026-11-23 to 2026-11-29
Price: 100 x (1 + 0.55 x (index - 86.7) / 86.7) x market factor
Band: 55 to 145
Payoff: Long: (price - 55) / 90 sUSDT per share, held to 0..1. Short: 1 minus that.
Point value: 0.0111 sUSDT per share per price point
Trading closes: 2026-11-29 00:00 UTC
Settles: Right after HDD-EGLL-26W48 settles, no earlier than 2026-11-30 03:00 UTC
Settlement source: Computed by the simulator from the linked weather contract's final index and the simulated market factor. Not a market price.

Trade HOIL-EGLL-26W48

Long gains if the simulated price finishes above the level you pay for.

Spend (sUSDT)

Virtual sUSDT only. No monetary value.

Hedge the weather out

For every 100 long shares here, 81.26 short shares of HDD-EGLL-26W48 offset the weather part of this price. For a short position, take the other side.

What remains is the simulated market factor. The ratio moves with it, so it is recalculated at every pricing pass.

Open HDD-EGLL-26W48 →

Rules in short

The price is simulated by the demo from a real weather index and a simulated market factor. It is not a market price.
Long gains when the price finishes higher, short when it finishes lower. A long and a short share together always pay 1 sUSDT.
Outside the band 55 to 145 the contract pays as if the price had finished on the edge.
You pay in full when you buy. What you paid is the most you can lose: no margin, no liquidation.
You can sell back to the market maker at any time before trading closes.
Void, with every position refunded at cost, if the linked weather contract is void.

Full rules →