London heating degree days · November 2026
Heating degree days at EGLL · 30 local days, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-30 · trading closes 11-30 00:00 (16 d)
- Model fair
- 304.5 ± 22.0
- priced 23 min ago
- Edge
- -26.2
- fair minus market
- Volume
- 453
- 12 traders
- Open interest
- 307 / 571
- long / short shares
Real-asset futures that follow this index
simulated pricesEach contract below is a commodity price index the demo simulates: 100 on the day it was listed, moved by this contract's HDD and by a simulated market factor. Weather-implied is the price at the index this market is trading at now; when it differs from the asset's own market price, simulated spread traders trade the two against each other.
| Contract | Market price | Weather-implied | Gap | Per 1% of index | Hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOIL-EGLL-NOV26Heating oil | 96.52long 44¢ | 96.70 | -0.18 | +0.55% | 0.45 short per long share |
How the index builds, day by day
Each bar is one local day's contribution to the index. Days on the final record count as they stand; the rest are the model's estimate, with a whisker one standard deviation either way.
Day-by-day table
| Day | Source | High | Low | HDD | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 1 | Final record | 10.0°C | 8.0°C | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Mon, Nov 2 | Final record | 12.0°C | 8.0°C | 8.0 | 17.0 |
| Tue, Nov 3 | Final record | 12.0°C | 8.0°C | 8.0 | 25.0 |
| Wed, Nov 4 | Final record | 10.0°C | 8.0°C | 9.0 | 34.0 |
| Thu, Nov 5 | Final record | 10.0°C | 8.0°C | 9.0 | 43.0 |
| Fri, Nov 6 | Final record | 11.0°C | 6.0°C | 9.5 | 52.5 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | Final record | 10.0°C | 4.0°C | 11.0 | 63.5 |
| Sun, Nov 8 | Final record | 10.0°C | 3.0°C | 11.5 | 75.0 |
| Mon, Nov 9 | Final record | 10.0°C | 4.0°C | 11.0 | 86.0 |
| Tue, Nov 10 | Final record | 11.0°C | 6.0°C | 9.5 | 95.5 |
| Wed, Nov 11 | Final record | 10.0°C | 7.0°C | 9.5 | 105.0 |
| Thu, Nov 12 | Final record | 8.0°C | 3.0°C | 12.5 | 117.5 |
| Fri, Nov 13 | Forecast | 8.9°C | 1.1°C | 13.0 ± 1.8 | 130.5 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | Forecast | 10.3°C | 0.5°C | 12.6 ± 1.8 | 143.1 |
| Sun, Nov 15 | Forecast | 12.8°C | 4.9°C | 9.2 ± 1.8 | 152.3 |
| Mon, Nov 16 | Forecast | 8.3°C | 4.0°C | 11.9 ± 1.9 | 164.1 |
| Tue, Nov 17 | Forecast | 12.8°C | 4.6°C | 9.3 ± 2.0 | 173.4 |
| Wed, Nov 18 | Forecast | 9.0°C | 3.2°C | 11.9 ± 2.2 | 185.3 |
| Thu, Nov 19 | Forecast | 6.2°C | 1.0°C | 14.4 ± 2.4 | 199.8 |
| Fri, Nov 20 | Forecast | 11.6°C | 3.5°C | 10.4 ± 2.6 | 210.2 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | Forecast | 13.1°C | 4.9°C | 9.0 ± 2.8 | 219.2 |
| Sun, Nov 22 | Forecast | 13.6°C | 9.3°C | 6.6 ± 3.0 | 225.8 |
| Mon, Nov 23 | Forecast | 12.5°C | 6.0°C | 8.8 ± 3.2 | 234.5 |
| Tue, Nov 24 | Forecast | 10.0°C | 3.9°C | 11.1 ± 3.4 | 245.6 |
| Wed, Nov 25 | Forecast | 8.1°C | 3.2°C | 12.3 ± 3.7 | 257.9 |
| Thu, Nov 26 | Forecast | 8.3°C | 3.5°C | 12.1 ± 3.9 | 270.0 |
| Fri, Nov 27 | Forecast | 13.3°C | 5.8°C | 8.5 ± 4.0 | 278.5 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | Forecast | 13.4°C | 11.6°C | 5.7 ± 4.0 | 284.2 |
| Sun, Nov 29 | Beyond the forecast | 9.5°C | 6.2°C | 10.2 ± 4.4 | 294.4 |
| Mon, Nov 30 | Beyond the forecast | 9.5°C | 6.2°C | 10.2 ± 4.4 | 304.5 |
Market index path
one step per trade · dashed line: model fair nowRecent trades
| Time | Trade | Shares | Amount | Avg price | Index after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-13 19:50 | Buy short | 104.99 | 60.00 | 57.1¢ | 330.7 |
| 11-13 18:50 | Buy shortpair | 13.97 | 7.78 | 55.7¢ | 335.0 |
| 11-13 18:50 | Buy short | 110.82 | 60.00 | 54.1¢ | 335.6 |
| 11-13 15:50 | Buy longpair | 5.43 | 2.56 | 47.2¢ | 340.3 |
| 11-13 11:50 | Buy longpair | 8.70 | 4.09 | 47.0¢ | 340.1 |
| 11-13 10:50 | Buy longpair | 11.19 | 5.23 | 46.7¢ | 339.7 |
| 11-13 04:50 | Buy long | 133.47 | 60.00 | 45.0¢ | 339.2 |
| 11-13 01:50 | Buy longpair | 15.24 | 6.57 | 43.1¢ | 333.6 |
| 11-12 21:50 | Buy long | 34.13 | 14.51 | 42.5¢ | 333.0 |
| 11-12 20:50 | Buy long | 36.39 | 15.16 | 41.7¢ | 331.6 |
| 11-12 19:50 | Buy long | 52.04 | 21.12 | 40.6¢ | 330.1 |
| 11-12 18:50 | Buy longpair | 10.57 | 4.21 | 39.8¢ | 327.9 |
| 11-12 17:50 | Buy short | 94.82 | 56.09 | 59.2¢ | 327.5 |
| 11-12 16:50 | Buy short | 24.89 | 14.36 | 57.7¢ | 331.4 |
| 11-12 14:50 | Buy short | 61.08 | 34.60 | 56.6¢ | 332.4 |
A trade marked pair is one leg of a simulated spread trade: the other leg is in a real-asset contract that follows this index.
Settlement
This contract settles on the sum of the station's daily records, as soon as the oracle marks all 30 days final and settleable - no earlier than 12-01 03:00. If a day of the period cannot settle, the contract is void and every position is refunded at cost.
Contract specification
- Symbol
- HDD-EGLL-NOV26
- Index
- Heating degree days (HDD), in °C-days
- Formula
- max(0, 18 - (high + low) / 2), summed over the period
- Station
- EGLL · London
- Period
- November 2026 · 30 local days, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-30
- Band
- 260 to 430
- Payoff
- Long: (index - 260) / 170 sUSDT per share, held to 0..1. Short: 1 minus that.
- Point value
- 0.0059 sUSDT per share per index point
- Trading closes
- 2026-11-30 00:00 UTC
- Settles from
- 2026-12-01 03:00 UTC
- Settlement source
- The station's daily record, final and settleable, from the Weather Market oracle
- Hedges
- Energy - Natural gas, Heating oil, District heat (the exposure it hedges; this contract settles on the index)
Long gains if HDD finishes above the level you pay for.
Virtual sUSDT only. No monetary value.
- Long gains when the index finishes higher, short when it finishes lower. A long and a short share together always pay 1 sUSDT.
- Outside the band 260 to 430 the contract pays as if the index had finished on the edge.
- You pay in full when you buy. What you paid is the most you can lose: no margin, no liquidation.
- You can sell back to the market maker at any time before trading closes, when the last day of the period begins.
- Void, with every position refunded at cost, if any day of the period cannot settle on the record.