Heating oil · London · November 2026
Heating oil price index, 100 at listing · follows HDD-EGLL-NOV26 · 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-30 · trading closes 11-30 00:00 (16 d)
- Reference price
- 92.55 ± 8.06
- priced 23 min ago
- Weather-implied
- 96.70
- market is -0.18 to it
- Volume
- 485
- 13 traders
- Open interest
- 362 / 595
- long / short shares
Where this price comes from
real weather × a simulated marketHeating oil demand follows the cold, more loosely than gas: the simulated price rises with heating degree days.
- Model index
- 304.5
- ± 22.0
- Market index
- 330.7
- long 42¢
- At listing
- 341.8
- this contract's base
Heating degree days from the station record and forecast. 117.5 is already on the record after 12 days.
- Listing level
- 100.00
- Weather effectindex 304.5 against 341.8 at listing
- -6.0%× 0.9400
- Market factorsimulated, stepped 23 min ago
- -1.5%× 0.9846
- Reference price
- 92.55
One index point moves the price by +0.158 points. The weather effect is held to ±60%.
The market factor stands in for everything else that moves a commodity - supply, storage, freight, currencies. It is a random walk the simulator steps once an hour and freezes when trading closes. The sensitivity to the weather is an assumption of this simulation, not an estimate from market data.
Price and weather index, pass by pass
one point per hourly pricing passThe reference price moves when the weather index moves and when the market factor steps. The market price follows it as simulated participants trade, and spread traders close gaps between the two contracts.
Try a weather outcome
100 shares, bought at the current market priceMove the final HDD and see what a position here would make by itself, and what it would make with the weather exposure taken out by an offsetting position in HDD-EGLL-NOV26.
- Settlement price
- 92.55
- long share pays 0.376
- This position alone
- -6.61
- 100 long HOIL
- Weather hedge
- +6.91
- 44.89 short HDD
- Hedged total
- +0.30
- sUSDT, both legs
The hedged line is flat where both contracts are inside their bands: the weather is out of the result. What is left is the gap between the two markets today and the market factor, which is held here at its current -1.5% and is not hedged by a weather contract. Fills are taken at the quoted price, without the price impact of the trade.
Recent trades
| Time | Trade | Shares | Amount | Avg price | Price after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-13 18:50 | Buy longpair | 31.22 | 13.68 | 43.8¢ | 96.52 |
| 11-13 18:50 | Buy short | 108.64 | 60.00 | 55.2¢ | 96.06 |
| 11-13 17:50 | Buy short | 114.38 | 60.00 | 52.5¢ | 97.67 |
| 11-13 16:50 | Buy short | 56.98 | 28.67 | 50.3¢ | 99.38 |
| 11-13 15:50 | Buy shortpair | 11.99 | 5.93 | 49.5¢ | 100.24 |
| 11-13 11:50 | Buy shortpair | 19.18 | 9.41 | 49.1¢ | 100.42 |
| 11-13 10:50 | Buy shortpair | 24.67 | 11.97 | 48.5¢ | 100.70 |
| 11-13 07:50 | Buy short | 23.06 | 11.05 | 47.9¢ | 101.07 |
| 11-13 05:50 | Buy long | 60.02 | 30.98 | 51.6¢ | 101.42 |
| 11-13 04:50 | Buy long | 44.53 | 22.40 | 50.3¢ | 100.52 |
| 11-13 01:50 | Buy shortpair | 33.62 | 16.75 | 49.8¢ | 99.85 |
| 11-12 22:50 | Buy long | 104.33 | 51.42 | 49.3¢ | 100.36 |
| 11-12 18:50 | Buy shortpair | 23.45 | 12.13 | 51.7¢ | 98.79 |
| 11-12 13:50 | Buy short | 74.40 | 37.57 | 50.5¢ | 99.14 |
| 11-12 10:50 | Buy short | 42.64 | 20.91 | 49.0¢ | 100.26 |
A trade marked pair is one leg of a simulated spread trade: the other leg is in the weather index contract this price follows.
Settlement
This contract settles right after HDD-EGLL-NOV26 settles on the station record. The final price is the listing level of 100, moved by the weather effect at the final index and by the market factor as it stood when trading closed. If the weather contract is void, this one is void too and every position is refunded at cost.
Contract specification
- Symbol
- HOIL-EGLL-NOV26
- Underlying
- Heating oil price index, simulated by this demo. 100 on the day of listing.
- Follows
- HDD-EGLL-NOV26 · Heating degree days
- Hub
- EGLL · London
- Period
- November 2026 · 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-30
- Price
- 100 x (1 + 0.55 x (index - 341.8) / 341.8) x market factor
- Band
- 70 to 130
- Payoff
- Long: (price - 70) / 60 sUSDT per share, held to 0..1. Short: 1 minus that.
- Point value
- 0.0167 sUSDT per share per price point
- Trading closes
- 2026-11-30 00:00 UTC
- Settles
- Right after HDD-EGLL-NOV26 settles, no earlier than 2026-12-01 03:00 UTC
- Settlement source
- Computed by the simulator from the linked weather contract's final index and the simulated market factor. Not a market price.
Long gains if the simulated price finishes above the level you pay for.
Virtual sUSDT only. No monetary value.
For every 100 long shares here, 44.89 short shares of HDD-EGLL-NOV26 offset the weather part of this price. For a short position, take the other side.
What remains is the simulated market factor. The ratio moves with it, so it is recalculated at every pricing pass.
Open HDD-EGLL-NOV26 →- The price is simulated by the demo from a real weather index and a simulated market factor. It is not a market price.
- Long gains when the price finishes higher, short when it finishes lower. A long and a short share together always pay 1 sUSDT.
- Outside the band 70 to 130 the contract pays as if the price had finished on the edge.
- You pay in full when you buy. What you paid is the most you can lose: no margin, no liquidation.
- You can sell back to the market maker at any time before trading closes.
- Void, with every position refunded at cost, if the linked weather contract is void.