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Pick the temperature/Jeju·South Korea

What will the temperature in Jeju be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?

resolvedTarget hour 2026-11-13 06:00 UTC · your time 06:00Ladder ≤ 13°C … ≥ 23°CForecast at listing 18°CTickets closed

Live determination data

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METAR baseline now
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Consensus now
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Last 24 hourly runs, in UTC. The ladder's range is shaded; the reading at 06:00 on the target day settles each pool.

Crowd index

12 tickets · 312 sUSDT
What the tickets say the reading will be, under each reference. Moves with every ticket.
Crowd · consensus
18.2°C
most likely 19°C · spread ±2.6
Crowd · METAR
18.0°C
most likely 18°C · spread ±2.5
Probability by degree
10%19%forecast 18°C≤13°C14°C15°C16°C17°C18°C19°C20°C21°C22°C≥23°C
Crowd expectation, ticket by ticket
17.9°C18.2°C18.2°C18.0°C11 Nov, 07:3513 Nov, 03:35
Your ticket
1 · Which reading judges you
2 · Pick one or more degrees · price = crowd probability under Consensus
3 · Stake per degree
sUSDT
Pick at least one degree to see the price.
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Result

run run_xTU33fFPvi
Consensus
refunded · hour not settlement-eligible
verdict mixed
METAR baseline
18.0°C → 18°C
METAR RKPC 130600Z 03002KT 9999 -RA FEW015 BKN040 OVC080 18/15 Q1021 NOSIG

My tickets

0

No tickets of yours on this ladder yet.

Recent tickets

12
WhenWhoJudged byDegreesCostOutcome
17 h agosimulated participantMETAR baseline18°C18.32 sUSDTwon · 102.46 sUSDT
23 h agosimulated participantConsensus21°C · 22°C · ≥ 23°C54.46 sUSDTrefunded · 54.46 sUSDT
24 h agosimulated participantConsensus15°C · 16°C45.60 sUSDTrefunded · 45.60 sUSDT
29 h agosimulated participantConsensus18°C13.11 sUSDTrefunded · 13.11 sUSDT
36 h agosimulated participantConsensus19°C · 20°C35.13 sUSDTrefunded · 35.13 sUSDT
37 h agosimulated participantMETAR baseline18°C · 19°C42.55 sUSDTwon · 87.51 sUSDT
39 h agosimulated participantMETAR baseline20°C7.80 sUSDTlost
40 h agosimulated participantConsensus14°C4.60 sUSDTrefunded · 4.60 sUSDT
2 d agosimulated participantConsensus19°C28.31 sUSDTrefunded · 28.31 sUSDT
2 d agosimulated participantConsensus17°C15.88 sUSDTrefunded · 15.88 sUSDT
2 d agosimulated participantConsensus19°C21.33 sUSDTrefunded · 21.33 sUSDT
3 d agosimulated participantConsensus17°C25.16 sUSDTrefunded · 25.16 sUSDT

Rules

The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 13°C at the bottom, ≥ 23°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).

Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.

Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.

Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →