What will the temperature in Nagoya be at 06:00 on Friday 13 November?
Live determination data
Crowd index
12 tickets · 365 sUSDTOnly 33% of Nagoya's hours were settlement-eligible over the last 7 days, below the 40% floor for consensus tickets, so a consensus ticket here would most likely be refunded. This ladder takes METAR tickets only.
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Recent tickets
12| When | Who | Judged by | Degrees | Cost | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 21°C · 22°C · 23°C | 37.29 sUSDT | lost |
| 19 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 22°C · 23°C | 51.15 sUSDT | lost |
| 19 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 17°C · 18°C | 33.89 sUSDT | won · 170.12 sUSDT |
| 25 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 18°C | 7.58 sUSDT | won · 59.19 sUSDT |
| 28 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 19°C · 20°C | 24.98 sUSDT | lost |
| 30 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 16°C | 8.27 sUSDT | lost |
| 36 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 20°C · 21°C · 22°C | 73.20 sUSDT | lost |
| 40 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 16°C · 17°C · 18°C | 58.99 sUSDT | won · 164.62 sUSDT |
| 47 h ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 21°C | 20.17 sUSDT | lost |
| 2 d ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 20°C | 3.42 sUSDT | lost |
| 2 d ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 18°C | 7.02 sUSDT | won · 57.30 sUSDT |
| 2 d ago | simulated participant | METAR baseline | 20°C · 21°C | 39.27 sUSDT | lost |
Rules
The ladder is whole degrees in °C: ≤ 15°C at the bottom, ≥ 25°C at the top, one bin per degree between. A reading of x lands in the bin whose range contains it (each bin spans half a degree either side).
Two references, two pools. A ticket names the reading that judges it. Consensus is the oracle's value for the target hour; the pool is refunded at cost if that hour is not settlement-eligible. METAR baseline is the station's own report observed nearest the target hour - the routine METAR within 30 minutes either side, as corrected - so a report left over from the hour before never judges a ticket; the pool is refunded if the station sent none in that window. The two pools never mix.
Pricing. Each pool is a market maker over the bins (LMSR, b = 600); a bin's price is the crowd's probability for it. A ticket buys shares in every degree it picks; the winning degree pays 1 sUSDT a share, the rest pay nothing.
Timing. Tickets close one hour before the target hour. Settlement runs after the hour's run is stored, on the oracle's values only. More →